Fortune Fencing ROC/VET/RJCC

Div I-A Women's Épée

Monday, September 6, 2021 at 4:00 PM

Ontario, CA - Ontario, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	VAN BRUMMEN Anna C.	-	-	-	-	8%	91%
2	LAVERY Chloe K.	-	7%	35%	43%	15%	-
3	GEBALA Natalie Brooke A.	-	-	3%	20%	44%	32%
3	KIM Zoe L.	-	5%	23%	43%	29%
5	WU Amelia	-	-	1%	11%	39%	49%
6	YAO Yilin	-	9%	36%	40%	13%	1%
7	CHEN Lefu	-	1%	5%	21%	41%	32%
8	BEI Karen	-	1%	7%	34%	58%
9	MYERS Jeanelle Christina A.	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
10	LEUNG Natalie	-	-	1%	12%	42%	45%
11	LEE Olivia	39%	43%	16%	2%	-
12	WANG Nora	-	2%	18%	45%	34%	1%
13	NELSON-LOVE Lily B.	-	1%	7%	30%	45%	17%
14	LEE Kaitlyn M.	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%
15	FELAND Alexandra	3%	19%	41%	32%	5%
16	KALE Anika A.	1%	10%	27%	36%	21%	4%
17	GAO Judy	-	2%	15%	39%	35%	8%
18	LEE Natasha	-	5%	31%	41%	19%	3%
19	LIN Ashley	28%	47%	21%	4%	-	-
20	LAN Alice S.	-	1%	13%	36%	38%	12%
21	YOUNG Ashley	-	6%	33%	44%	17%	-
22	NGUYEN Tallulah	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
23	CHIMIENTI Michele	5%	26%	43%	23%	3%
24	ZHANG mickey	1%	8%	34%	39%	16%	2%
25	HABERMAN Hailey	17%	55%	24%	4%	-	-
26	CAREY Michele S.	-	9%	36%	39%	14%	1%
27	SMIK Leonie A.	-	4%	24%	41%	26%	5%
28	SIMHADRI Meghana	11%	48%	32%	8%	1%	-
29	ZHEREBCHEVSKA Veronika	11%	38%	37%	13%	1%
30	LI Charlotte	27%	43%	24%	6%	-
31	BUSH emma	10%	31%	35%	19%	5%	-
32	ASSADOURIAN Nouneh	1%	7%	29%	44%	18%	2%
33	PRIMES Amanda M.	8%	27%	36%	22%	6%	1%
34	GAUR Ishi	10%	33%	38%	17%	3%
35	WANG Angelina	17%	55%	24%	4%	-	-
36	CHIRASHNYA Noya	7%	27%	36%	23%	7%	1%
37	POON Desiree	34%	47%	17%	3%	-	-
38	FERNANDEZ Lucero	60%	34%	5%	-	-	-
39	LEE Megan	64%	32%	4%	-	-	-
40	SRIVASTAVA Arya	66%	30%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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