AFM Div2 ROC and RJCC

Cadet Men's Épée

Sunday, November 25, 2018 at 10:00 AM

Sunnyvale, CA - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	IVE Isaac L.	-	1%	13%	37%	37%	11%	1%
2	SHUR Yakov C.	-	-	1%	9%	38%	53%
3	VAN EIKEMA HOMMES Neil B.	-	1%	6%	20%	34%	29%	10%
3	AU Marcus J.	-	2%	11%	30%	36%	19%	3%
5	SMITH Zane A.	-	3%	12%	28%	34%	19%	4%
6	CHON Joshua	-	3%	16%	38%	35%	8%
7	GARRETT Samuel	2%	36%	45%	15%	2%	-	-
8	BARRY Dominick	-	-	2%	10%	31%	40%	18%
9	SCRIBNER Aidan C.	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	2%	< 1%
10	DORRELL Connor I.	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
11	KIM Benjamin I.	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
12	CAI Kevin P.	-	-	-	2%	14%	40%	44%
13	DE JONG Thijmen J.	-	-	-	2%	12%	40%	46%
14	TARBUSKOVICH III John	1%	6%	20%	33%	27%	11%	2%
15	LIU Kirk D.	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	6%	1%
16	LIANG Aaron	-	1%	4%	16%	34%	33%	12%
17	RAJPAL Sartaj S.	-	1%	5%	24%	40%	26%	4%
18	YULE Alexander L.	-	-	-	3%	22%	57%	17%
19	SIVAGAR Leo	1%	8%	24%	35%	24%	7%	1%
20	PALLI Maximillian	1%	13%	35%	36%	14%	1%
21	KIM PAUL	-	-	4%	15%	33%	34%	13%
22	LIU Felix	1%	29%	47%	20%	3%	-	-
23	ANDERSON Elias W.	1%	11%	28%	35%	20%	4%
24	LOWE-THORPE Tyler	2%	19%	40%	30%	8%	1%
25	RAKHIMI Marat T.	2%	23%	41%	26%	6%	-
26	KOH Tommy	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
27	MILOSLAVSKY Jack	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-	-
28	SHOEMAKER Thomas P.	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
29	LUCERO-OLSON Aydin	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
30	ZHANG Michael	16%	39%	33%	11%	1%	-	-
31	ARABACI Jack A.	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	1%	-
32	DUONG Enoch	-	< 1%	8%	41%	40%	10%	1%
33	HUSSAIN Kamran	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	-
34	MILEY Nick N.	9%	28%	34%	21%	7%	1%	-
35	KENNY Oliver R.	12%	33%	33%	16%	4%	1%	-
36	ATHAVALE Pranav	1%	9%	25%	33%	23%	7%	1%
37	LEE Trevor	25%	41%	25%	7%	1%	-
38	LOUIE Jason	1%	10%	28%	36%	21%	4%
39	WANG Andrew	67%	28%	4%	-	-	-
40	PELAYO Raphael	90%	9%	-	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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