Neil Lazar RYC-RJCC

Y-14 Women's Foil

Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 8:15 AM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NISSINOFF Alexandra	-	-	-	1%	11%	40%	48%
2	LEE Lavender	-	-	-	4%	43%	53%
3	ORVANANOS Anice	-	-	-	1%	10%	41%	47%
3	LIU Jaelyn A.	-	-	-	-	3%	28%	69%
5	AMR HOSSNY Sara	-	-	-	3%	26%	71%
6	MI Aileen	-	-	2%	11%	35%	41%	12%
7	ZHENG Julie	-	-	4%	26%	46%	23%
8	CALISE Ella	-	2%	13%	37%	39%	9%
9	CHEN Renee	-	-	1%	7%	29%	46%	17%
10	WILLIS Fletcher L.	-	-	5%	25%	47%	24%
11	CASCONE Emily	-	-	1%	14%	45%	35%	5%
12	MCSHERRY Ava	1%	10%	32%	39%	16%	2%
13	CHOW Annabelle	-	-	1%	10%	56%	34%
14	TRACZ Calleigh D.	-	1%	10%	49%	33%	6%	-
15	WANG Jasmine	-	-	2%	19%	51%	28%
16	DAI Zizhuo (Zizi)	2%	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%	-
17	PEVZNER Nicole	-	2%	16%	42%	31%	8%	1%
18	YANG Iris	-	-	3%	18%	45%	33%
19	YU Jane	18%	46%	29%	6%	< 1%	-
20	SHA Yi Ling	-	-	1%	11%	42%	40%	6%
21	SIMONOV Dasha	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
22	HOU Wendong	1%	6%	26%	42%	21%	3%
23	SHIM Grace	-	5%	27%	46%	20%	2%
24	WANG Jolie Z.	5%	38%	41%	14%	2%	-
25	YURKOVA Mariia	-	1%	6%	25%	41%	23%	4%
26	FIELD Julianna	2%	25%	45%	23%	4%	-
27	YANG Lingting	-	1%	11%	37%	43%	7%
28	ZELDIN Nadia	16%	43%	33%	7%	-	-
29	LEVY Avery	2%	16%	39%	33%	10%	1%
30	HAO Danica	17%	44%	30%	8%	1%	-
31	SMIDA Julia	30%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
32	PAULUS Sloane	6%	29%	41%	20%	3%	-
33	POPOVA Polina	5%	24%	40%	25%	6%	-	-
34	PAULUS Isabella	-	6%	30%	48%	14%	1%
35	WANG Reese	17%	40%	33%	10%	1%	-
36	LI Eleanor	31%	46%	21%	3%	-	-
37	LAO Sophia	6%	29%	42%	21%	2%	-
38	WANG Rachael	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-	-
39	SONPAL Vivian	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%	1%
40	SHENG Katherine	2%	13%	35%	35%	13%	2%	-
41	GREENLEAF Ella	34%	43%	19%	3%	-	-	-
42	KUMAR Ishana	6%	35%	51%	8%	-	-	-
43	CHANG Victoria	40%	46%	14%	1%	-	-	-
44	HWANG Chanel	27%	53%	18%	1%	-	-	-
45	MCNULTY Avery	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
46	HUBERT AVA CLAIRE	18%	43%	31%	8%	1%	-
47	SHI Sasha	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
48	MURPHY Charlotte	5%	33%	46%	16%	1%	-
49	LI Han	38%	43%	16%	2%	-	-
50	POWLEDGE Cora	4%	22%	40%	28%	6%	-
51	LI Beryl	72%	25%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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