Neil Lazar RYC-RJCC

Y-12 Men's Saber

Sunday, October 3, 2021 at 8:30 AM

New Haven, CT - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	NGUYEN Anthony	5%	24%	37%	25%	7%	1%
2	KIM Ethan	-	3%	15%	34%	35%	12%
3	BONETTI Brayden	-	-	-	2%	14%	42%	42%
3	LIU Kevin	-	4%	20%	37%	29%	8%
5	PEREIRA Beckham	-	-	6%	27%	43%	23%	2%
6	CARRINGTON IV William T.	-	1%	6%	26%	43%	24%
7	LIN Maxim	15%	38%	32%	12%	2%	< 1%
8	WANG daniel	-	4%	20%	39%	30%	7%
9	ALAVE Kyle	-	3%	16%	36%	34%	11%
10	NARDINI Nathanael P.	-	-	2%	11%	33%	41%	14%
11	MEHAN Nicholas	-	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
12	WELSTEAD Nicholas	-	2%	13%	32%	35%	15%	2%
13	LIN Philip T.	-	3%	18%	39%	31%	8%
14	KIETLINSKI Samuel	-	2%	13%	35%	37%	13%
15	LEUNG Ian	1%	10%	28%	36%	20%	4%
16	URSU Marcel T.	-	1%	10%	29%	40%	20%
17	DAI Zihou	4%	24%	40%	25%	6%	1%
18	MEYERSON Jacob	-	-	4%	20%	43%	33%
19	PINTO Marcus	-	1%	11%	37%	37%	13%	1%
20	WAXLER Ryan	-	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%
21	FADEL Alexander	-	-	4%	22%	43%	28%	3%
22	MONTALVO Matthew	12%	37%	35%	14%	2%	-	-
23	SALDARINI Glenn	-	2%	13%	38%	37%	10%
24	SHAPIRO Simon	18%	43%	30%	9%	1%	-
25	LEE Andrew	1%	16%	39%	32%	11%	1%
26	MALDARI Luke	1%	10%	31%	37%	18%	3%
27	LOO Jason	12%	40%	35%	11%	1%	-
28	GERTSBERG Eli	2%	14%	32%	33%	15%	3%	-
29	SARWAHI Viraat	5%	35%	40%	17%	3%	-
30	ABDEL-DAYEM Ibrahim	13%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-	-
31	CHUNG Connor	13%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
32	LIN Justin	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
33	GOMEZ Emilio	24%	46%	25%	4%	-	-	-
34	HOLTSCHLAG Milo	10%	35%	39%	14%	2%	-	-
35	CHENG Sawyer	3%	26%	41%	24%	5%	-	-
36	MEHTA Krish	23%	45%	27%	5%	-	-	-
37	KIM Daehwan(Benjamin)	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
38	LOSQUADRO Joseph	38%	44%	15%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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