Garden State RYC

Y-14 Men's Foil

Saturday, June 5, 2021 at 12:30 PM

Metuchen, NJ - Metuchen, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	LEWIS Akhil	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
2	ZHEN Ethan	-	-	-	4%	22%	44%	29%
3	BADLANI Dev	-	1%	7%	31%	43%	18%
3	KLOTZ Isaiah	-	1%	7%	32%	43%	17%
5	WANG Jackson	-	1%	7%	27%	43%	23%
6	TRAUGOT Owen G.	-	-	1%	7%	29%	43%	20%
7	SIMA Congyu Josh	-	-	2%	19%	45%	33%
8	SONG Bryan	-	-	5%	22%	41%	26%	5%
9	MENG Zhaoyi	-	-	2%	22%	49%	26%
10	LEE Jonah	-	1%	10%	36%	40%	14%
11	PO Oliver	-	-	2%	14%	37%	37%	10%
12	ZHOU Leon	-	4%	25%	38%	25%	7%	1%
13	LI Eric	-	-	1%	5%	21%	42%	31%
14	PITERBARG Maxim	3%	17%	33%	31%	14%	2%
15	WONG Jackson	-	1%	13%	40%	37%	10%
16	HONG Issac	-	-	5%	26%	44%	24%
17	LIN James G.	-	-	1%	16%	47%	36%
18	MATSAKH Philip	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	7%
19	KOVACS Wyatt	-	1%	11%	45%	35%	8%
20	REZA Farazi	4%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%
21	PLASTARAS Trey	2%	13%	31%	35%	17%	3%
22	LI Aaron	-	1%	8%	32%	42%	17%
23	LI Allen	9%	34%	39%	15%	2%	-
24	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
25	GUO Justin	1%	8%	24%	36%	25%	6%
26	YOON Dylan	2%	19%	39%	30%	9%	1%	-
27	TANG August L.	-	1%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
28	KIAYIAS Aris	1%	14%	35%	34%	13%	2%	-
29	LI Ayren	6%	24%	36%	25%	8%	1%
30	JIA Jing Yu	10%	42%	36%	10%	1%	-
31	MALHAM Andrew	1%	23%	49%	23%	4%	-
32	RNO Kyler	4%	28%	44%	20%	4%	-
33	LEE Brendan	-	1%	12%	37%	38%	12%
34	BLEIL Tyler	36%	45%	17%	2%	-	-
35	WEI Qian	54%	37%	8%	1%	-	-	-
36	TORRES Treston	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
37	JIE WanYue	18%	44%	31%	7%	1%	-
38	WANG Julang	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
39	GREENLEAF Paul	6%	45%	38%	10%	1%	-
40	XU Andy P.	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	22%
41	FRANK Amir	11%	40%	40%	8%	-	-
42	MEADOWS-STRAUSS shepherd	2%	12%	32%	34%	16%	3%	-
43	DALBERG Anders	5%	28%	40%	22%	5%	-	-
44	BATRA-BANG Jonah	12%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
45	YE Gavin	20%	49%	28%	3%	-	-
46	MEADOWS-STRAUSS beau	27%	44%	23%	4%	-	-
47	XIA Eric	56%	35%	8%	1%	-	-	-
48	HIGGASON Hugh	57%	36%	7%	-	-	-
49	WANG Jason	79%	20%	1%	-	-	-
50	OETZEL Chase	7%	34%	41%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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