USA Fencing National Championships & July Challenge

Div I-A Men's Saber

Sunday, July 3, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Minneapolis, MN, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 KOTOV Leonid 100% 99% 94% 76% 44% 15% 2%
2 WU Roger (Mengke) 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 31%
3 HOUTZ Jackson 100% 100% 97% 83% 50% 14%
3 LIU kelly 100% 100% 100% 96% 82% 50% 15%
5 GREENBAUM Maxwell H. 100% 100% 100% 99% 94% 72% 31%
6 BERGER Oliver 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 33% 7%
7 YANG Ziyi 100% 100% 99% 96% 80% 49% 15%
8 ESCUETA Tony V. 100% 100% 96% 82% 50% 15%
9 MICHELL Bailey 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 20%
10 BABAYEV Gabriel A. 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 39% 9%
11 SHAHZAD Azlan A. 100% 93% 67% 31% 8% 1%
12 CHEONG Heonjae 100% 96% 78% 43% 14% 2%
13 YEN Preston 100% 100% 96% 80% 45% 12%
14 KIM-COGAN Ryan 100% 100% 97% 84% 56% 24% 5%
15 MARGULIES William 100% 100% 96% 82% 53% 21% 4%
16 PAN Alex 100% 88% 54% 20% 4% -
17 REYES Xavier M. 100% 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 7%
18 WOODWARD Dylan P. 100% 99% 94% 75% 43% 15% 2%
19 WANG Eric Y. 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 14%
20 HONG Vincent Q. 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 27%
21 LINDHOLM Oliver S. 100% 98% 87% 58% 23% 4%
22 LUO George F. 100% 100% 97% 84% 50% 14%
22 NOBLE Colin 100% 100% 95% 78% 44% 12%
24 PIWOWAR Alex 100% 87% 54% 21% 5% 1% -
25 WOODWARD Connor 100% 100% 97% 85% 58% 25% 5%
25 VOCHOSKA Aidan F. 100% 100% 99% 92% 71% 37% 9%
27 GUAN Luke 100% 99% 89% 61% 27% 7% 1%
28 RIGHTLER Samuel 100% 96% 79% 46% 16% 2%
29 FENG Leo 100% 100% 99% 90% 66% 32% 7%
30 KROON Lucas 100% 94% 71% 35% 9% 1%
31 CHOI Silas 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 7%
32 PANDEY Neil 100% 96% 79% 47% 18% 4% -
33 WONG Ryan 100% 99% 92% 67% 30% 5%
34 XU Andrew 100% 99% 93% 74% 42% 14% 2%
35 SCHERER Max 100% 99% 89% 63% 30% 8% 1%
36 CHANG Colin S. 100% 99% 92% 71% 38% 11% 1%
37 YUN Jake 100% 100% 95% 77% 42% 11%
38 HONG Steven 100% 96% 78% 44% 15% 2%
39 COLE Alexander 100% 99% 88% 57% 21% 3%
40 FLOT Tai A. 100% 100% 96% 80% 49% 18% 3%
41 EDELMAN Seth A. 100% 93% 69% 35% 11% 2% -
42 POPE Nico 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 23%
43 MICLAUS Justin 100% 99% 89% 61% 26% 5%
44 FALLICK Ozzie 100% 100% 99% 91% 62% 17%
45 PI Alexander 100% 88% 55% 21% 4% -
45 LIU Mingyang Ryan 100% 92% 65% 29% 7% 1%
47 CAISSE Simon B. 100% 96% 74% 34% 7% 1%
48 SHOMAN Noah 100% 99% 91% 65% 29% 6%
48 LEITH Jack 100% 93% 60% 21% 3% -
50 SHOMAN Zachary 100% 99% 91% 65% 30% 6%
51 EICHHORN Lukas H. 100% 98% 87% 59% 25% 4%
52 BAUER Hank E. 100% 98% 84% 55% 24% 6% 1%
53 MURZYN III CJ 100% 98% 84% 56% 24% 6% 1%
54 PRIMUS Nazir 100% 95% 73% 38% 11% 1%
55 ZHOU Miles 100% 97% 81% 46% 14% 2%
56 CHEN Evan P. 100% 99% 89% 63% 28% 6%
57 MEDVEDEV Michail D. 100% 82% 44% 14% 2% -
58 DOLAN Charles R. 100% 97% 78% 42% 12% 1%
59 FREYRE DE ANDRADE Elian R. 100% 100% 97% 83% 53% 21% 4%
60 DENG Andrew 100% 100% 98% 88% 64% 30% 7%
61 LOPEZ Lucas M. 100% 84% 48% 17% 3% - -
61 SINGH Angadh 100% 93% 69% 35% 11% 2% -
63 CORTEZ Christopher 100% 96% 77% 44% 15% 3% -
64 PATIL Aaryan A. 100% 99% 86% 55% 20% 3%
65 COVINGTON Max G. 100% 100% 97% 83% 55% 23% 4%
66 KIM Alexander M. 100% 99% 93% 74% 41% 13% 2%
67 CHAUDHURI Eeshaan A. 100% 97% 83% 52% 20% 4% -
68 MORALES Jonathan 100% 90% 61% 27% 7% 1% -
69 RHEE Ethan N. 100% 98% 83% 49% 16% 2%
70 ZHU Charlie 100% 96% 75% 37% 9% 1%
71 GLOZMAN Justin 100% 87% 53% 20% 4% -
72 HONG Rubin 100% 95% 72% 37% 11% 1%
73 CHAVES Matthew J. 100% 96% 75% 40% 12% 2%
74 BULL Anderson 100% 98% 85% 55% 22% 4%
75 BEITEL Noah 100% 94% 69% 33% 8% 1%
76 DELARUE NELSON Y. 100% 96% 76% 42% 13% 2%
77 HOLMES Aiden G. 100% 100% 97% 84% 55% 22% 3%
78 CHEONG Heonjun 100% 99% 92% 70% 37% 11% 1%
79 SCHARDINE James 100% 98% 85% 54% 22% 5% -
80 RAMANAN Jaisimh 100% 71% 29% 7% 1% -
81 SHANKAR Karthik 100% 62% 21% 4% - -
82 HAN Daniel Y. 100% 99% 88% 59% 24% 4%
83 GOLDIN Lucca 100% 82% 41% 11% 2% -
83 KIM Matthew 100% 91% 63% 28% 7% 1%
85 CHAN Aidan 100% 78% 37% 9% 1% -
86 MCCARTHY Gabriel 100% 99% 92% 69% 34% 7%
87 SOUTHWORTH Nathaniel 100% 88% 57% 24% 6% 1% -
88 LIN Nick 100% 99% 94% 76% 46% 17% 3%
89 FIELDS Matthew S. 100% 91% 62% 27% 7% 1% -
90 HUANG Zekai 100% 91% 63% 29% 8% 1% -
91 REN Richard 100% 94% 72% 38% 12% 2% -
92 SHANAHAN Adam E. 100% 99% 91% 67% 32% 7%
93 GRATHWOL-SEAR Oliver 100% 86% 51% 18% 3% -
94 SHETTY VIVAN 100% 78% 37% 10% 1% -
95 AN Damon 100% 88% 56% 23% 6% 1% -
96 WILKINSON James 100% 47% 11% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.