Cherry Blossom ROC

Div I-A Men's Saber

Saturday, April 2, 2022 at 1:00 PM

University of Maryland, College Park Campus - Reckord Armory - College Park, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FENG Leo	-	1%	5%	19%	35%	31%	10%
2	LEE Justin	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
3	WOODWARD Connor	-	-	1%	10%	33%	40%	16%
3	MCCARTHY Gabriel	-	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
5	JOHNSON Langston C.	-	-	4%	16%	33%	33%	13%
6	MARGULIES William	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	14%
7	DE LA FUENTE Diego	-	-	-	1%	9%	41%	49%
8	CORTEZ Christopher	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	6%
9	BOUKHTIN Maxim	-	6%	25%	41%	23%	5%	< 1%
10	WOODWARD Dylan P.	-	-	4%	19%	43%	33%
11	CHAVES Matthew J.	-	5%	22%	40%	28%	6%
12	LEE Aydan J.	-	1%	11%	33%	40%	15%
13	FENKER William M.	-	-	2%	17%	47%	29%	4%
14	LIU Mingyang Ryan	-	6%	29%	46%	16%	2%	-
15	HAZLE-CARY Jacob P.	-	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	22%
16	ZHENG Edward L.	-	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
17	MATT Chris	-	-	1%	7%	31%	46%	17%
18	SHANKAR Karthik	15%	40%	34%	10%	1%	-
19	NG Jeremiah	-	4%	22%	37%	27%	9%	1%
20	WANG Nicolas	-	3%	18%	35%	30%	11%	2%
21	ZHOU James Y.	13%	38%	36%	12%	2%	-
22	ZHOU Kevin	-	1%	6%	28%	44%	21%
23	BAKER Keith L.	1%	13%	37%	34%	13%	2%
24	LIN Felix	25%	44%	25%	5%	-	-
25	OTT Alexander	15%	43%	32%	10%	1%	-
26	BRIDGEMAN Andrew T.	6%	28%	39%	21%	5%	-
27	GAUVEY Kieran	13%	41%	34%	11%	1%	-	-
28	CLARK Keagan	9%	34%	38%	16%	3%	-
29	ZHAO Anthony	45%	42%	12%	2%	-	-
30	PATRICK Timothy M.	-	1%	9%	32%	41%	17%
31	SRERE Mark A.	-	3%	18%	38%	32%	9%
32	OLIVER Isaac	45%	41%	13%	1%	-	-	-
33	KLEBS Robert	7%	32%	40%	18%	3%	-	-
34	LICHTERMAN Jakub	8%	33%	39%	17%	3%	-	-
35	JENSBY Jason	28%	46%	23%	4%	-	-	-
36	NOVEY Eric	5%	26%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
37	MARKOWITZ Jonathan	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-
38	FALVEY Brian	12%	39%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
39	MOLDABEK-MACHADO Aron	67%	30%	3%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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