Arnold Fencing Classic ROC (Div1A, Div 2, Vet), RJCC, and RYC

Div II Men's Épée

Friday, March 11, 2022 at 3:00 PM

Ohio Expo Center - Kasich Hall - Columbus, OH, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	HERMANSON David B.	-	2%	12%	31%	36%	17%	2%
2	MIRANDA Matteo	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
3	LEE JoonWon	2%	16%	34%	31%	14%	3%	-
3	HONG James	3%	16%	33%	32%	14%	2%
5	KENT Dwain	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	13%
6	ZENG Zihan	-	3%	16%	35%	34%	11%
7	MICKELSON Jacob P.	-	7%	33%	41%	17%	2%
8	PAN Tristan	14%	35%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
9	ECKEL Anson J.	-	1%	6%	23%	43%	28%
10	KRZYSIAK David F.	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	5%	-
11	LOESER Jacob	21%	51%	24%	4%	< 1%	-
12	PAN Colin	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	18%
13	EVANS Grant	1%	11%	29%	35%	19%	4%
14	CAVRELL Nicholas	3%	19%	36%	29%	11%	2%	-
15	LI Chenyu	-	2%	15%	35%	35%	12%
16	MA Bochen	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%
17	MILLER Lance W.	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
18	MCNICHOLAS Evan M.	-	3%	18%	38%	33%	8%
19	BOUMEDIENNE Sami	-	-	6%	26%	44%	24%
20	CIOLINO Jacob F.	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
21	JENSEN Daniel G.	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	19%
22	ZRELAK Teig	-	-	2%	13%	33%	37%	15%
23	KNECHT PRANGE Patrick	1%	11%	30%	34%	19%	5%	-
24	BOLARIN Oluwatosin N.	-	2%	14%	38%	35%	10%
25	CHITU Andreas C.	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
26	O'BRIEN Timothy S.	2%	14%	33%	33%	15%	2%
27	SPINA Joseph B.	1%	8%	25%	36%	23%	7%	1%
28	MADSEN Jr Eric W.	-	-	3%	14%	33%	35%	14%
29	LANDIS Geoffrey A.	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-
30	BARTCH Ethan L.	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%
31	DICKSON Tim	10%	30%	35%	20%	5%	-
32	ASGARALLY Anthony	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
33	GOHSMAN Maxwell	2%	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%
34	KRAJ Pawel	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	4%
35	AGARWAL Adheesh	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
36	YANG Pengfei	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
37	PAINE Evan J.	-	2%	11%	29%	36%	19%	4%
38	HU Anton	51%	37%	10%	1%	-	-	-
39	TIRADO Giancarlo	40%	41%	16%	3%	-	-
40	THRASHER Andrew W.	5%	30%	40%	21%	4%	-
40	CHEN Zhong Han	11%	34%	35%	16%	3%	-
42	PACK Josh	50%	40%	9%	1%	-	-
44	BANDALA Alex	20%	40%	28%	9%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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