Statistics Profile

Nathaniel Phillips

1988

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2175	1574 - 2775	1910	2175
Épée	Direct elimination	2438	1661 - 3214	2406	2438
Foil	Pool	2067	1551 - 2582	1900	2239
Foil	Direct elimination	2097	1576 - 2617	2060	2290

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.