Statistics Profile

David Naranjo

2004

Twin Cities Fencing Club Center for Blade Arts

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1892	1128 - 2655	1892	1892
Épée	Direct elimination	2101	671 - 3530	2101	2101
Saber	Pool	2391	2211 - 2570	1570	2538
Saber	Direct elimination	2745	2513 - 2976	1677	2780

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.