Statistics Profile

Nathaniel Holzgrafe

1991

Orion Fencing

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1875	1518 - 2231	1718	1967
Épée	Direct elimination	2092	1556 - 2627	2092	2627
Foil	Pool	1401	1188 - 1613	1295	2562
Foil	Direct elimination	1769	1450 - 2087	1759	2378
Saber	Pool	1649	1332 - 1965	1536	2286
Saber	Direct elimination	2066	1647 - 2484	1622	2074

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.