Statistics Profile

Alvin Poon

2002

University Of Michigan Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2624	2064 - 3183	2500	2624
Épée	Direct elimination	2972	2228 - 3715	2675	2972
Foil	Pool	3093	2848 - 3337	3053	3326
Foil	Direct elimination	3173	2702 - 3643	2023	3173

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.