Statistics Profile

Matthew Li

2008

AIC Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2677	2255 - 3098	2630	2918
Épée	Direct elimination	2972	2403 - 3540	1940	2972
Foil	Pool	2987	2809 - 3164	2125	2999
Foil	Direct elimination	3049	2878 - 3219	2079	3118

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.