Statistics Profile

Noah Stein

2003

East Coast Fencing Club Carnegie Mellon University Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1970	1047 - 2892	1970	1970
Épée	Direct elimination	2718	1267 - 4168	2718	2718
Foil	Pool	1949	1537 - 2360	1774	2893
Foil	Direct elimination	2064	1552 - 2575	1910	2323

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.