Statistics Profile

Josiah Naidl

2007

Twin Cities Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2104	1075 - 3132	2104	2104
Épée	Direct elimination	2073	745 - 3400	2073	2073
Foil	Pool	2011	1830 - 2191	1159	2075
Foil	Direct elimination	2080	1891 - 2268	1740	2135

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.