Statistics Profile

Soren Johnson

2009

Memphis University School Fencing Team Nashville Elite Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1788	1621 - 1954	1210	1796
Épée	Direct elimination	2121	1926 - 2315	1497	2269
Foil	Pool	1760	1582 - 1937	1176	1782
Foil	Direct elimination	1868	1640 - 2095	1306	2140

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.