Statistics Profile

Sophia Kelley

2004

Lawrence University Fencing NCAA Twin Cities Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1705	1476 - 1933	1127	1705
Foil	Direct elimination	1836	1378 - 2293	1295	1924

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.