Statistics Profile

Michael Connelly

1998

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2170	1911 - 2428	2049	2340
Épée	Direct elimination	2168	1758 - 2577	1869	2314
Foil	Pool	1221	623 - 1818	984	1221
Foil	Direct elimination	1564	389 - 2738	1564	1821

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.