Statistics Profile

Nina Chafee

2004

Haverford College NCAA Twin Cities Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1515	1003 - 2026	1460	1793
Épée	Direct elimination	2154	1188 - 3119	1820	2154
Foil	Pool	2145	1213 - 3076	2145	2145
Foil	Direct elimination	2388	868 - 3907	2388	2388

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.