Statistics Profile

Aaron Chen

2013

LA Fencing Academy of Pomona

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	674	0 - 1479	674	674
Saber	Pool	1332	1163 - 1500	375	2079
Saber	Direct elimination	1697	1527 - 1866	1157	1768

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.