Statistics Profile

Zachary Tollefson

1994

Twin Cities Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	2288	2113 - 2462	1374	2380
Épée	Direct elimination	2545	2359 - 2730	1849	2564
Foil	Pool	1911	1403 - 2418	1813	2389
Foil	Direct elimination	1863	1181 - 2544	1747	2601

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.