Statistics Profile

Mark Hagerman

2012

Virginia Apex Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	718	514 - 921	554	837
Épée	Direct elimination	1241	868 - 1613	1079	1639
Foil	Pool	641	247 - 1034	530	838
Foil	Direct elimination	1562	906 - 2217	1513	1815

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.