Statistics Profile

William Moran

2004

Twin Cities Fencing Club

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	1651	968 - 2333	1651	1651
Foil	Direct elimination	1190	301 - 2078	1190	1712
Saber	Pool	2077	1563 - 2590	2062	2077
Saber	Direct elimination	3244	2418 - 4069	2732	3244

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.