Statistics Profile

Tyler Stemler

2007

Bay Regional Fencing Alliance

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	1419	754 - 2083	1419	2070
Épée	Direct elimination	1478	295 - 2660	1478	1478
Foil	Pool	1255	974 - 1535	1144	1323
Foil	Direct elimination	1429	973 - 1884	1351	1820

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.