Statistics Profile

Theodore Buchner

2016

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Épée	Pool	775	536 - 1013	751	1475
Épée	Direct elimination	1273	847 - 1698	1116	1752
Foil	Pool	555	355 - 754	375	857
Foil	Direct elimination	1327	968 - 1685	1327	2250

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.