Statistics Profile

Lucian Hanson

2010

Memphis University School Fencing Team

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	726	124 - 1327	726	1021
Foil	Direct elimination	1694	512 - 2875	1694	2079
Saber	Pool	765	0 - 1542	765	765
Saber	Direct elimination	1687	382 - 2991	1687	1687

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.