Statistics Profile

Darren Lu

2012

Memphis University School Fencing Team

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Weapon	Type	Strength	Estimate Range^*	Min	Max
Foil	Pool	2826	1922 - 3729	2826	2826
Foil	Direct elimination	3530	2480 - 4579	3530	3530

^* 95% confidence interval of the estimate (μ ± 2σ).

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Strength over time

Daily results are combined into one point. Dashed stretches indicate a less stable estimate.

Strength is a numeric summary of how a fencer has performed against other fencers over time.
The estimate usually settles after about 12 bouts, so early data can move sharply.
New fencers begin around 2500, but with high uncertainty.
Pools, direct eliminations, and mixed-gender bouts are tracked separately.
The scale runs from roughly 0 to 5000, with the average around 2500.
Beating much stronger fencers moves the estimate more than beating weaker ones.
Win probability reflects rating differences only, not style matchups or familiarity.
Per-bout changes are available in bout history.