W&M Conomikes-Gutenberg Open 2022

Div III Mixed Foil

Sunday, February 27, 2022 at 11:30 AM

William & Mary Adair Gym - Williamsburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	GALEMORE Jonathan	-	-	-	3%	25%	72%
2	FORMY DUVAL Christopher	1%	15%	37%	33%	12%	2%
3	SEMP Iain	-	2%	14%	46%	38%
3	MOORHOUSE Emmett	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%
5	SMIGRODZKI Nymeria	-	1%	15%	49%	35%
5	PRICE Owen	-	2%	19%	49%	29%
7	MAHNKEN Thomas G.	1%	12%	31%	37%	17%	2%
8	HAYES Nathan P.	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%
9	EDRALIN Alexander Jordan Q.	1%	12%	34%	36%	16%	2%
10	MAHNKEN Thomas P.	-	9%	46%	37%	8%	1%
11	ROBERTS Zachary	2%	12%	34%	38%	14%
12	EDRALIN II Chadwick Q.	8%	29%	39%	21%	4%
13	REEDER Nicholas W.	44%	40%	14%	2%	-
14	MILES Pam	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
15	ROUNTREE Andrew	-	3%	14%	35%	35%	13%
16	KASPER Lucia	4%	28%	55%	13%	1%
17	FERGUSON Sam C.	2%	14%	34%	35%	14%	1%
18	OGLE Ian	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
19	MEARS Caleb	-	3%	19%	44%	32%	2%
20	THOMAS Ryan	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%
21	PAQUETTE Emily	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%
22	UHRICH Reese	3%	37%	46%	14%	1%
23	DELANNES-MOLKA Daniel	33%	45%	19%	3%	-	-
24	HILL Ian	3%	17%	33%	32%	13%	2%
25	KRONAUGE Andersen	42%	45%	12%	1%	-
26	CRUM Elayne	16%	43%	34%	6%	-	-
27	WILSON Reagan Ophelia	10%	61%	26%	3%	-
28	BURNSIDE Caden	26%	56%	16%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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