Hangover Open "Reddit Famous" Walk N Roll

Senior Mixed Épée

Saturday, January 1, 2022 at 11:00 AM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	TAFOYA Devin D.	-	-	1%	7%	35%	57%
2	BLYTH Jourdain L.	-	-	-	2%	17%	45%	36%
3	LI Patrick	-	3%	17%	39%	32%	9%
3	WALSH Kevin	-	-	1%	9%	28%	40%	21%
5	CLAYMAN John A.	-	6%	25%	40%	24%	5%	-
6	SMITH Jackson	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
7	TIBERI Joseph (Joe) H.	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
8	STRAUSS Luke	-	5%	26%	41%	23%	4%
9	SHUGART Henry R.	-	-	-	2%	15%	43%	41%
10	SATTERFIELD Donald	5%	22%	38%	27%	8%	-
11	CRANFORD Cory A.	-	-	3%	20%	45%	26%	4%
12	DANIS Blake M.	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
13	LUTTON Thomas (Tom) W.	-	-	4%	19%	37%	31%	9%
14	RASMUSSEN Nathan	1%	9%	28%	36%	21%	5%
15	LEE Seungwon	-	1%	12%	35%	38%	15%
16	CHOI Kaiden I.	3%	58%	33%	6%	-	-
17	NIEBERGALL Colin G.	-	-	4%	17%	37%	33%	9%
18	ALTMAN Jeff H.	-	-	2%	13%	34%	38%	13%
19	GAO Zachary	1%	17%	39%	32%	10%	1%	-
20	PEARSON Heila	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
21	HARR Carver	1%	15%	38%	33%	11%	1%
22	COLE Matthew	-	7%	30%	41%	19%	4%	-
23	TORRES Nicolas	1%	19%	42%	30%	8%	1%	-
24	MCADOO Declan	3%	29%	41%	22%	5%	-
25	SCHULZ Annie	1%	9%	29%	39%	20%	2%
26	WEBER Nora	8%	28%	37%	22%	5%	-
27	LANDWEHR Helen B.	2%	16%	35%	32%	13%	3%	-
28	YODER Bridget H.	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%	-
29	TRIFILETTI Lawrence T.	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	1%
30	HUTCHINSON Valerie A.	1%	9%	36%	39%	13%	1%	-
31	FRENCH Phaelen	10%	55%	30%	5%	-	-	-
32	ALPERSTEIN Donald W.	9%	32%	37%	18%	3%	-
33	CHAN Andrew M.	4%	21%	37%	29%	9%	1%
34	FREEMAN Kate	10%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
35	TOLLEFSEN Zachary	5%	26%	39%	24%	6%	1%	-
36	BLANCHARD Timothy	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
37	MESCHIA Maggie	41%	43%	14%	2%	-	-
38	LEWIS Cole	70%	28%	2%	-	-	-	-
39	ANDERSON Donald	26%	47%	24%	3%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

Want to keep up with all things fencingtracker? Join our Discord community here.