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Captain Steere Open

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, June 19, 2022 at 10:00 AM

DC Fencers Club - Silver Spring, MD, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	SU Caleb	-	2%	15%	39%	34%	10%
2	HENSAL Nicolas A.	-	4%	21%	39%	29%	7%
3	HRAPSKY Ryan J.	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
3	SIVAKUMAR Ajit	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
5	CAO Albert	1%	12%	36%	36%	13%	2%
6	CLICK Aiden	-	-	3%	22%	46%	28%
7	WRIGHT Ezra B.	-	-	1%	11%	40%	47%
8	WHEELER Daniel	1%	11%	32%	38%	17%	2%
9	LEE JoonWon	1%	13%	52%	29%	6%	< 1%
10	HE Lawrence	-	1%	12%	40%	38%	9%
11	CHAWLA Armaan	-	3%	17%	42%	32%	6%
12	TABLEMAN Doug S.	-	-	4%	28%	61%	7%
13	RHYU Kozmo	-	-	3%	23%	48%	26%
14	KROPP Jack	-	-	2%	14%	41%	43%
15	STEVENS Daniel	-	1%	10%	38%	40%	11%
16	CARTER Austin L.	-	6%	29%	45%	18%	2%
17	RICHARDS Dick	-	-	5%	25%	44%	26%
18	WOLFE Alex	-	4%	25%	44%	25%	2%
19	ANDREWS Iain	-	7%	34%	39%	17%	3%
20	WILKINSON Derek H.	-	1%	12%	36%	38%	13%
21	PARK Faith K.	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
22	ZHANG Caden	2%	29%	48%	18%	2%	-
23	BAMPTON Nicholas J.	-	9%	36%	40%	13%	1%
23	PALAMARCHUK Andriy	13%	42%	33%	10%	1%	-
25	WOZNIAK Fryderyk	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
26	SNIDER Jeffrey H.	-	1%	12%	38%	39%	10%
27	HARDY Tristan L.	-	1%	6%	25%	43%	25%
28	SOLDATOV Faddey	8%	36%	38%	15%	2%	-
29	O'DOWD Andrew J.	-	-	4%	28%	46%	21%
30	DAN Rex	7%	51%	33%	8%	1%	-
31	SCHWARTZ Elliott	-	2%	13%	38%	39%	9%
32	LIN Harrison	21%	43%	29%	7%	1%	-
33	O'HARROW Tristan C.	1%	9%	35%	38%	15%	2%
34	AYMETT Robert (Skip) S.	2%	21%	46%	26%	4%	-
35	LAM Bill	11%	37%	38%	12%	2%	-
36	PAN Colin	1%	12%	33%	37%	15%	1%
37	MILLSON Daniel	21%	44%	28%	7%	1%	-
38	ZHANG Sen	48%	40%	11%	1%	-	-
39	O'REILLY Robert	56%	39%	5%	-	-	-
40	PETRUNKO Kyrylo	66%	31%	3%	-	-	-
41	PALAMARCHUK Matthew	38%	49%	12%	1%	-	-
42	JARRELL Keegan	6%	42%	40%	11%	1%	-
43	ARMSTRONG Gary	38%	49%	12%	1%	-	-
43	WOZNIAK Maciej	11%	47%	36%	6%	-	-
45	DAN Chuntao	12%	38%	35%	13%	2%	-
46	SIMS Martin L.	60%	34%	6%	-	-	-
46	FOX Alexander	78%	21%	1%	-	-	-
48	BOWIE Charlotta	36%	44%	17%	2%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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