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Y-14 Men's Foil

Sunday, January 16, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Pasadena Convention Center - Main Ballroom - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SADOVSKY Leor B.	-	-	1%	8%	39%	53%
2	MARTIN IV Elmer D.	-	-	2%	15%	43%	40%
3	LEUNG Chu Ming Aiden	-	4%	17%	33%	31%	13%	2%
3	SIU Aiden	-	-	-	5%	30%	64%
5	NAYGAS LAWRENCE I.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	43%	26%
6	PARK Ryan	9%	50%	33%	8%	1%	-
7	CANLAS Nathan	-	-	1%	8%	36%	55%
8	CHOI Ethan	-	-	5%	25%	51%	19%
9	ZHOU Hao Kai	-	1%	12%	40%	37%	10%
10	OH Jaden	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	20%
11	YI William	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
12	DINSAY Kristjan	-	3%	17%	40%	34%	6%
13	ZHANG Jiening	-	-	4%	25%	45%	25%
14	LEE Dylan	-	8%	33%	40%	17%	2%
15	PARK Sky	-	5%	24%	43%	25%	3%
16	WU Lucas	-	2%	17%	41%	34%	7%
17	ZHENG zhe	-	1%	9%	34%	42%	14%
18	QUITORIANO Matthew	1%	18%	44%	29%	7%	1%
19	LLIDO Soren	-	4%	18%	34%	31%	12%	2%
20	CHOI Ethan	2%	25%	48%	22%	4%	-
21	TSAO Lukas	-	3%	19%	43%	29%	6%
22	ZHANG Aaron	-	-	5%	26%	46%	23%
23	PONS Diego	2%	14%	36%	36%	11%	1%
24	WANG Logan	-	4%	19%	34%	30%	12%	2%
25	NAVARRO Kato	1%	5%	19%	32%	28%	12%	2%
26	BORG Matthew	3%	16%	34%	32%	14%	2%
27	LIEW Harrison C.	-	5%	28%	42%	21%	3%
28	PARK David	9%	36%	38%	15%	2%	-
29	KIM Aiden	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
30	KETTELLE John	5%	28%	43%	21%	3%	-
31	DHOKTE Neev	7%	29%	41%	20%	4%	-
32	KUNTSEVICH Ivan I.	3%	22%	36%	27%	10%	2%	-
33	LE Jacob	18%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
34	BARTSCH Henry	20%	39%	29%	10%	2%	-
35	SCHIENEMAN Valentine	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
36	LING Carson Jr	12%	48%	33%	7%	1%	-
37	DENG David	27%	44%	24%	5%	-	-
38	TAN Pyron	7%	46%	38%	9%	1%	-
39	MONTGOMERY Georgie	65%	31%	4%	-	-	-
39	OPATKIEWICZ Aidan	77%	21%	2%	-	-	-
41	DONG Arthur	41%	42%	15%	2%	-	-
42	BEECHER Keegan	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-
43	KRYMOV Nikita	54%	36%	9%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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