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Equinox Epee Tournament

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, April 10, 2022 at 9:00 AM

Meredith Middle School - Des Moines, IA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SUVOROV Yuly	-	-	2%	12%	38%	48%
2	TUCKER Brad W.	-	-	8%	39%	41%	12%
3	BUTLER Joseph D.	1%	6%	21%	33%	27%	11%	2%
3	BURGESS James E.	-	2%	12%	30%	36%	18%	2%
5	BENFORD Kailan A.	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
6	BUCKINGHAM Emma N.	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	12%
7	CHRISTIAN John R.	-	4%	21%	42%	29%	4%
8	LIMER Avi	12%	36%	36%	14%	2%	-
9	ROBBINS Christopher (Chris) W.	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	7%
10	KOVANDA Cassidy K.	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	20%
11	YOUNG Jessica L.	-	3%	16%	34%	34%	13%
12	BISSEN Quinn	1%	9%	29%	38%	20%	3%
13	GUST Jadyn	24%	45%	26%	4%	< 1%	-
14	MILLIAN Matthew	2%	12%	30%	34%	18%	4%
15	MUSEL Daniel	1%	12%	34%	37%	15%	1%
16	TAKATA Benjamin	2%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%
17	BUTTZ John-Henry	1%	11%	34%	36%	15%	2%
18	CELSI Nick L.	-	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	5%
19	HART Jackson	-	2%	16%	42%	35%	5%
20	OBERLY Nicholas	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%
21	MARCUSON Timothy C.	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
22	ARAYE Nasro	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
23	STEPHENS Rick W.	2%	12%	28%	33%	20%	6%	1%
24	STOECKEL Sofia I.	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	14%	3%
25	KNIGHT Ethan	1%	6%	21%	35%	29%	9%
26	TENHUNDFELD Jack	1%	8%	35%	50%	7%	-
27	RHEA Eric L.	10%	30%	35%	19%	5%	-
28	STONER Shanrael M.	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	4%
28	JOHNSON Jay	-	3%	16%	38%	34%	9%
30	JOHNSTONE Mathew	-	-	6%	37%	44%	13%
31	SCHLIEP Anna J.	3%	20%	46%	26%	5%	-
32	FITZGERALD Thomas R.	7%	25%	34%	23%	9%	2%	-
33	MOHAMED Faisa	13%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-
34	SHOEMAKER Oliver	17%	38%	32%	12%	2%	-
35	FRANZ Lisa L.	20%	41%	30%	9%	1%	-
36	EULENSTEIN Chantal	27%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-
37	KUHN Jeffrey	4%	26%	41%	23%	5%	-
38	HONEK Kyle	4%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%	-
39	RHEA Heather	10%	46%	34%	9%	1%	-
40	JOHNSTONE Natasha	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
41	HANSON Aimee E.	8%	32%	41%	17%	2%	-
42	STANLEY Patrick	4%	25%	41%	24%	5%	-
43	JUNK Heather	19%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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