Bill Goering Memorial - CO Cup3/Vet Walk N Roll

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 6, 2022 at 8:30 AM

Denver Fencing Center - Denver, CO, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WESTPHAL David R.	-	-	-	-	3%	32%	65%
2	BRISLAWN Reilly R.	-	-	-	-	4%	27%	69%
3	CARRIER Gabriel A.	-	1%	11%	34%	39%	15%
3	STRAUSS Luke	-	2%	11%	31%	39%	17%
5	MCDONALD Connor	4%	19%	36%	29%	10%	1%	-
6	CHRISTENSEN Parker	-	6%	26%	41%	23%	4%	-
7	HAWSON Kieran	-	5%	23%	39%	26%	6%
8	DANIS Blake M.	-	3%	18%	38%	31%	9%
9	LI Patrick	-	-	-	3%	19%	44%	33%
10	BARTLETT Christopher	-	1%	11%	32%	39%	17%
11	ZHOU Jiasheng	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%
12	GAO Zachary	-	5%	24%	38%	26%	6%	-
13	ALTMAN Jeff H.	-	-	-	3%	29%	68%
14	MCADOO Declan	-	-	2%	13%	39%	43%	3%
15	KENT IV David	-	4%	18%	36%	31%	10%	1%
16	CHOI Kaiden I.	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
17	GIOVAGNOLI Nolan	1%	9%	34%	42%	13%	1%
18	KENT Elizabeth J.	17%	39%	31%	11%	2%	-	-
19	HARR Carver	-	1%	7%	32%	49%	11%
20	DE JONG Titus	6%	29%	42%	20%	2%	-
21	KIM Eugene	-	2%	16%	38%	34%	10%
22	KENT V David	-	5%	20%	37%	30%	7%	-
23	ANDERSON Claire	3%	18%	34%	30%	13%	3%	-
24	COLE Matthew	-	-	2%	14%	37%	35%	10%
25	BURBEY Sam	16%	41%	32%	10%	1%	-
26	TORRES Nicolas	1%	9%	33%	38%	17%	3%
27	PETERSON Matthew	18%	43%	30%	8%	1%	-
28	PEARSON Heila	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	14%	3%
29	ANDERSON Donald	14%	37%	34%	13%	2%	-	-
30	BUERGISSER Kai	10%	46%	34%	10%	1%	-
31	BLEICHER Simon	3%	22%	41%	27%	7%	1%	-
32	PEARSON Arwa	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
33	TOLLEFSEN Zachary	2%	15%	33%	34%	14%	2%	-
34	ENTWISLE Jacob	10%	32%	36%	18%	4%	-
35	DENT Gideon	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	-	-
36	BAS Joaquin	1%	10%	30%	37%	19%	4%	-
37	LEWIS Rachel	60%	33%	6%	-	-	-	-
38	BLANCHARD Timothy	33%	46%	19%	2%	-	-
39	REID Wesley	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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