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South Coast RJCC/ROC

Div II Men's Épée

Friday, September 23, 2022 at 4:00 PM

Pasadena Convention Center - Pasadena, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	FAN Beichen	-	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
2	LEE Chun Po	-	1%	7%	26%	38%	23%	5%
3	CASTELLY Luke	-	4%	19%	36%	30%	9%
3	ZHANG Nathan	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%
5	AYABINA John	-	6%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
6	CHOI San	1%	9%	26%	33%	22%	7%	1%
7	DESAI Nalin H.	1%	13%	35%	35%	14%	2%	-
8	NALBANDIAN VAHAN P.	7%	25%	36%	24%	7%	1%
9	EVERS Gabriel	1%	10%	27%	35%	22%	5%
10	DAO Alexander	4%	19%	34%	29%	12%	2%
11	CROSSMAN Brandon	-	4%	16%	34%	34%	13%
12	KIM Sullivan	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
13	JONES Aiden	2%	15%	34%	33%	14%	2%
14	CHEN Bailey	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%
15	MCADOO Declan	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
16	LIU Yikun	11%	33%	35%	17%	4%	-
17	MING Nathan	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
18	DONAHUE Lake	-	2%	12%	27%	33%	20%	5%
19	LOCASALE Nicholas A.	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	8%
20	BARNETT Devin	2%	13%	29%	33%	18%	4%
21	ANDERSON Kai	5%	21%	34%	27%	11%	2%
22	BURLING Trenor	-	2%	11%	26%	34%	22%	5%
23	BUERGISSER Kai	2%	14%	31%	31%	17%	4%	-
24	LINGVAY Laurance (Larry) S.	-	-	4%	16%	33%	34%	13%
25	JONES Caleb	-	2%	11%	31%	38%	18%
26	LEE Richard U.	1%	9%	26%	35%	23%	6%
27	BAZHENOV Anthony	3%	18%	36%	30%	11%	2%
28	YANG Joshua	8%	31%	37%	19%	4%	-
29	CHAKRAVARTHY Arjun	53%	37%	9%	1%	-	-	-
30	MIAO KUNQI	4%	20%	35%	28%	11%	2%
31	FILONOV Andrei	6%	28%	37%	22%	6%	1%	-
32	LI zerong	50%	37%	11%	1%	-	-
33	SHIRLEY Kai	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
34	MARTIN Charles	11%	33%	34%	17%	4%	-
35	COHEN Joshua	5%	22%	36%	27%	10%	1%
36	GENER Alejandro	2%	13%	29%	32%	18%	5%	1%
37	MENDOZA Zandro	< 1%	3%	15%	34%	35%	13%
38	SHEN Jiayi	29%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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