Neil Lazar Div1A/Div2/Veteran ROC

Div II Men's Épée

Saturday, September 24, 2022 at 8:00 AM

Floyd Little Athletic Center - New Haven, CT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LAI Aedin 100% 100% 100% 97% 84% 52% 16%
2 THAKUR Om S. 100% 100% 97% 82% 49% 14%
3 AYALA Jaime 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 24%
3 O'HARROW Tristan C. 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 55% 17%
5 OSTIGUY Cameron 100% 99% 95% 78% 48% 18% 3%
6 NABAVI Matthew R. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 44%
7 CHESNEY Aiden R. 100% 98% 83% 51% 18% 3%
8 WANG justin 100% 97% 81% 48% 17% 3% -
9 MAHESH Tarun 100% 100% 100% 96% 81% 48% 13%
10 LONGSTREET Jeffrey 100% 100% 99% 93% 72% 37% 9%
11 FENG Du 100% 100% 95% 76% 43% 14% 2%
12 TORRES Gianni 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 17% 2%
13 BEALS Alden 100% 99% 89% 60% 23% 2%
14 HEKMAT Sina R. 100% 100% 98% 90% 67% 33% 7%
15 LUNA MARTINEZ Luis 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 10%
16 MELCHER Charles 100% 99% 89% 59% 23% 5% -
17 JENNINGS Adin 100% 100% 98% 89% 63% 27% 5%
18 DUBINSKY Scott 100% 100% 100% 98% 81% 33%
19 VALAYANNOPOULOS Nicolas 100% 100% 98% 88% 58% 22% 3%
20 ZHANG Zixian (Shawn) 100% 100% 97% 83% 52% 19% 3%
21 PAUL Max A. 100% 100% 97% 83% 53% 21% 4%
22 CHEN Jun Ho 100% 100% 100% 95% 75% 39% 9%
23 LIU Jeremiah W. 100% 93% 66% 30% 7% 1% -
24 CHU Brandon A. 100% 100% 95% 75% 39% 10% 1%
25 PAPSUN Benjamin J. 100% 97% 80% 48% 18% 4% -
26 XIE Brandon 100% 100% 94% 72% 36% 10% 1%
27 MCCALL Aidan 100% 98% 85% 56% 22% 4%
28 JIANG ryan 100% 100% 95% 77% 44% 14% 2%
29 GULLO Kenji Y. 100% 100% 99% 92% 70% 36% 8%
30 GRAYSON Joshua 100% 94% 69% 34% 9% 1% -
31 MCGRANE-MOFFITT Nolan A. 100% 99% 93% 72% 40% 13% 2%
32 DORASZELSKI Mark 100% 97% 81% 47% 16% 3% -
33 PALLADINO Ben T. 100% 99% 89% 60% 26% 6% 1%
34 BYARS John 100% 88% 55% 21% 4% - -
35 STELTENKAMP Neal 100% 84% 42% 11% 2% - -
36 PETROV Niki A. 100% 91% 60% 23% 4% -
37 RUSSELL Edward 100% 100% 100% 99% 95% 73% 30%
37 CHOUDHARY Grisham 100% 100% 100% 99% 93% 68% 26%
39 WARD Carrington R. 100% 100% 95% 75% 40% 12% 1%
40 HU Robert J. 100% 99% 90% 63% 26% 5% -
41 CHOU Benson 100% 93% 63% 28% 7% 1% -
42 MCWILLIAMS Miles 100% 88% 54% 20% 4% - -
43 LAPP Oliver 100% 99% 90% 65% 31% 8% 1%
44 HONG James 100% 99% 90% 64% 28% 6%
45 REDDY Arya 100% 92% 64% 26% 5% -
46 JACKSON Nicholas 100% 75% 35% 9% 1% -
47 DJONOUMA Toyohm 100% 100% 99% 91% 64% 27% 5%
48 PEDERSEN Christopher C. 100% 100% 99% 91% 67% 31% 6%
49 RITTERSHAUS Bryce 100% 82% 39% 9% 1% - -
50 BELLIVEAU Emmett S. 100% 99% 95% 77% 45% 15% 2%
51 VINE Ross 100% 99% 92% 68% 31% 6% -
52 ALI Adam 100% 100% 100% 97% 83% 49% 12%
53 LAI Boden 100% 99% 90% 65% 31% 8% 1%
54 LIN Zizhen 100% 89% 58% 24% 6% 1% -
55 HANSARD Jess 100% 97% 79% 40% 11% 1% -
56 BANG Abraham 100% 98% 84% 53% 20% 3%
57 OTTO Nathaniel B. 100% 97% 78% 44% 14% 2%
58 URQUHART Grant 100% 93% 65% 27% 5% -
59 HO Ivan 100% 73% 31% 7% 1% - -
60 RICE Ethan 100% 99% 89% 61% 27% 6% 1%
61 VAN HOESEN Joshua 100% 94% 70% 35% 11% 2% -
62 SPRINGER Elijah 100% 77% 33% 8% 1% - -
63 WARD Kofi 100% 91% 63% 28% 7% 1% -
64 BUISINE Aurelien 100% 94% 66% 28% 7% 1% -
65 TARDIFF Seth 100% 96% 80% 49% 19% 4% -
66 LI Ray 100% 65% 20% 3% - - -
67 HOLLIS Sean 100% 90% 60% 25% 6% 1% -
68 WOLFORD Benjamin 100% 65% 21% 3% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.