The future of US Fencing is at stake!

For transparency, fairness, and athlete support, VOTE NOW for:
(1) Maria Panyi, (2) Andrey Geva, (3) Igor Chirashnya, and (4) Sue Moheb.

January NAC

Veteran Men's Épée

Saturday, January 7, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Louisville, KY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the probability of achieving at least a certain number of victories in the pool for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 LICHTEN Keith H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 79% 26%
2 MAKMATOV Vadim 100% 100% 99% 88% 58% 23% 4%
3 WILKINSON Derek H. 100% 100% 99% 90% 65% 29% 6%
3 BUCKLEY Michael 100% 100% 100% 99% 88% 48%
5 FRANK Fred 100% 100% 100% 97% 81% 48% 13%
6 MECHKOV Iliya 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 95% 67%
7 STOCK Jordan 100% 100% 95% 76% 42% 12% 1%
8 ROSTAL Scott E. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 69% 27%
9 GAINES Aaron 100% 100% 100% 95% 77% 42% 10%
10 LEE Tobias (Toby) T. 100% 100% 100% 99% 92% 65% 22%
11 BARTLETT Jonathan R. 100% 100% 100% 98% 86% 56% 17%
12 SANTA MARIA Carlos A. 100% 100% 99% 91% 63% 21%
13 GATES Darcy C. 100% 99% 92% 68% 30% 6%
14 CHENG Thomas 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 58% 20%
15 MASE James B. 100% 100% 99% 90% 64% 28% 5%
16 RUSKIN David I. 100% 97% 81% 48% 18% 3% -
17 SCALES Chad 100% 100% 96% 78% 42% 12% 1%
18 KENT Dwain 100% 100% 97% 82% 50% 18% 3%
19 DEUCHER Joseph H. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 78% 37%
20 HUDSON Jeffrey (Jeff) A. 100% 100% 99% 93% 70% 28%
20 CRANOR Erich L. 100% 100% 97% 80% 40% 7%
22 BALLARD Mark V. 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 77% 34%
23 EVANS Allen L. 100% 98% 82% 49% 18% 3% -
24 SIMMONS Matthew C. 100% 100% 96% 81% 50% 16% 1%
25 O'DOWD Andrew J. 100% 100% 97% 80% 43% 10% 1%
26 BARREIRO Darren 100% 100% 100% 97% 85% 54% 17%
27 LIOU Solomon 100% 99% 92% 65% 27% 6% -
28 MEHALL Michael 100% 100% 97% 82% 44% 8%
29 WHEELER Mark C. 100% 100% 97% 82% 51% 18% 2%
30 CHOI Paul S. 100% 100% 100% 95% 74% 35% 7%
31 HENZLER Thomas A. 100% 100% 99% 91% 66% 28% 5%
32 MAYCHROWITZ Matt 100% 99% 91% 69% 37% 12% 2%
33 ARROWSMITH II Alan M. 100% 100% 100% 99% 91% 62% 20%
34 ROOD Alex 100% 100% 97% 83% 55% 22% 4%
35 FOLEY Kevin 100% 100% 98% 84% 52% 18% 2%
36 HARRELL D. Fox 100% 98% 86% 58% 26% 7% 1%
37 RESS Michael A. 100% 100% 94% 72% 38% 11% 1%
37 SANCHEZ Leon D. 100% 98% 84% 52% 20% 4% -
39 NEWSOME James L. 100% 100% 99% 91% 68% 32% 6%
39 MENDOZA Zandro 100% 98% 84% 51% 19% 4% -
41 GERACI Paul A. 100% 98% 88% 63% 32% 10% 1%
42 GUMAGAY Paul 100% 100% 99% 92% 68% 32% 6%
43 KALAPASEV Nenad (Ned) (Ned) S. 100% 100% 100% 98% 89% 61% 21%
44 KROGH Daniel (Dan) M. 100% 99% 90% 68% 36% 12% 2%
45 CAFASSO martin 100% 90% 60% 26% 6% 1% -
46 PHO Eric 100% 100% 100% 97% 86% 55% 18%
47 LUO Aaron 100% 95% 75% 44% 17% 4% -
48 POPOKH Leo 100% 99% 93% 74% 42% 14% 2%
49 STEWART Robert 100% 99% 93% 70% 35% 10% 1%
50 CAMPBELL Alex 100% 99% 93% 75% 44% 16% 3%
51 SPRINGER Michael 100% 98% 88% 63% 32% 10% 1%
52 MARSHALL William L. 100% 99% 90% 62% 27% 6% 1%
53 SCHINDLER Sergey M. 100% 100% 99% 93% 73% 37% 8%
54 ROUSE Joseph (Joe) T. 100% 97% 83% 51% 19% 3% -
55 KIM Jeff 100% 85% 50% 19% 4% - -
56 BOLDUC PATRICE 100% 91% 64% 29% 7% 1%
57 NEALE James H. 100% 97% 81% 50% 18% 3%
58 MAZZOLI Julio C. 100% 100% 97% 83% 48% 12%
59 VARNEY John R. 100% 100% 96% 75% 34% 6%
59 LOEFFLER Carl E. 100% 99% 93% 69% 32% 6%
61 CLINEFELTER Dennis S. 100% 100% 94% 71% 34% 9% 1%
62 DICKSON Tim 100% 97% 73% 36% 10% 2% -
63 MARKOWITZ William M. 100% 95% 72% 36% 11% 2% -
64 DILLE Brice 100% 98% 84% 51% 18% 3% -
65 SCOTT George R. 100% 99% 94% 74% 40% 10%
66 BAXTER Daniel J. 100% 99% 92% 70% 35% 8%
67 KLINE R. Jay 100% 96% 79% 46% 16% 2%
68 PENGELLY Neil 100% 90% 59% 24% 5% 1% -
69 WAGMAN Robert S. 100% 100% 98% 82% 47% 16% 2%
70 DOWNEY Gerard C. 100% 100% 98% 88% 60% 24% 4%
71 HUGHES Michael D. 100% 95% 74% 37% 10% 1%
72 PATTERSON Malcolm (Werewolf) D. 100% 91% 57% 18% 2% -
73 KLEIN Johannes 100% 78% 38% 10% 1% -
74 WEINGARTEN Solomon (Sol) 100% 86% 48% 13% 2% -
75 EDWARDS Tim 100% 85% 49% 16% 3% -
76 THOMAS Jr. Robert D. 100% 93% 66% 31% 8% 1%
77 KRUGER Mark 100% 84% 43% 11% 1% -
78 LINGVAY Laurance (Larry) S. 100% 98% 81% 47% 16% 3% -
79 LIPTON Michael D. 100% 97% 76% 36% 9% 1% -
80 BLAKLEY Dwain 100% 99% 94% 76% 45% 17% 3%
81 SPAHN Jeff 100% 99% 90% 60% 21% 3% -
81 LOCASALE Nicholas A. 100% 91% 57% 20% 4% - -
83 SWANSON Dave 100% 98% 84% 48% 14% 2% -
84 BECK Brian C. 100% 99% 89% 63% 28% 6% -
85 GILLESPIE Jeremy W. 100% 84% 32% 6% 1% - -
86 OZANNE Jeffrey S. 100% 83% 45% 13% 2% -
86 DAVIS Andrew 100% 95% 68% 27% 5% -
88 HESS Marc F. 100% 72% 29% 6% - -
89 FLINT James E. 100% 98% 86% 58% 25% 6% 1%
89 LANDIS Geoffrey A. 100% 86% 50% 18% 3% - -
91 GAUVEY Ken C. 100% 96% 79% 47% 18% 4% -
92 GROSS Louis A. 100% 88% 49% 14% 2% - -
93 REID Michael 100% 89% 57% 22% 5% - -
94 RIFKIND Neil 100% 53% 13% 2% - - -
95 MEHALL Michael 100% 36% 6% - - - -
96 TIERNEY Luke 100% 93% 52% 16% 2% - -
96 SIMS Martin L. 100% 60% 17% 2% - - -
98 REED David 100% 55% 16% 2% - - -
99 SATTERWHITE William W. 100% 41% 8% 1% - - -
100 GRAVIS Martin V. 100% 35% 4% - - - -
100 DAVIS Kelly 100% 41% 8% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.