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FCC (Div1A,Div2,Vet) 2023

Div I-A Men's Épée

Sunday, January 22, 2023 at 9:30 AM

Glenview Park District - Glenview, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	ZMYSLOWSKI Maciek	-	-	-	-	2%	98%
2	LI Chenyu	-	2%	13%	36%	37%	12%
3	GUINAN Joseph	-	-	-	3%	24%	73%
3	ROBINSON Matthew	2%	12%	33%	38%	16%	-
5	MANAUGH Guy	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
6	TIKHOMIROV Theodore	1%	9%	32%	40%	17%	1%
8	CONKLIN Jim	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	11%
9	WANG David	-	8%	35%	42%	14%	1%
10	ROBERTS Jonah	3%	18%	36%	31%	11%	1%
11	WHEELER Mark C.	-	1%	8%	26%	41%	24%
12	GLASS Timothy C.	-	1%	6%	25%	42%	26%
12	SILVERS Ari	-	2%	16%	46%	37%
14	SHARPSWAIN Tennyson (Tenny) F.	1%	13%	42%	37%	7%
14	ARNEMANN Jonas	5%	24%	39%	25%	6%	-
16	RICHARDSON Ray	15%	38%	33%	12%	2%	-
17	LASKA Patryk	-	-	5%	23%	44%	28%
18	SONN Rohan	-	2%	15%	38%	35%	10%
19	SWANSON Dave	-	7%	33%	43%	16%
20	SOBESHKEVYCH Roman	19%	40%	30%	10%	1%	-
21	YUE Xinyi	1%	9%	27%	36%	22%	5%
22	HALLMAN Blake	1%	20%	42%	28%	8%	1%
23	ALI Adam	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
23	SAMUEL Nirmel	18%	40%	31%	10%	1%	-
25	SHARPSWAIN Simon	-	4%	20%	44%	30%	2%
26	MCDOWELL Will	5%	37%	41%	15%	2%	-
27	PAPP Mike	1%	7%	26%	39%	23%	5%
28	TIERNEY Luke	10%	49%	33%	8%	1%
29	DICKSON Tim	1%	10%	31%	40%	18%	-
30	NGUYEN Maik	23%	44%	26%	6%	1%	-
31	GREENE Patrick	53%	38%	8%	1%	-	-
32	BRADFORD Ethan	15%	46%	30%	8%	1%	-
33	NASSOS Eric	2%	15%	33%	32%	14%	2%
34	WEATHERLY Hugh	66%	30%	4%	-	-
35	HENSEL Kaeleb	42%	40%	15%	3%	-	-
36	OM Anthony	74%	24%	2%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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