Boston Fencing Club RYC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, April 21, 2019 at 8:00 AM

Boston , MA - Boston, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KIM Tei D.	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	55%
2	BING Charles	-	-	-	1%	14%	43%	41%
3	KAO Castor T.	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	62%
3	LI Richard	-	-	-	-	3%	27%	70%
5	LI Eric	-	-	2%	15%	42%	41%
6	JIANG Owen	-	-	3%	18%	47%	32%
7	MIALL Steven A.	-	-	5%	22%	40%	28%	5%
8	WU Alexander	-	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	2%
9	GU Andrew	-	-	3%	17%	39%	35%	6%
10	MENG Zhaoyi	-	4%	19%	39%	31%	7%
11	ZHAI Jeffrey	-	1%	8%	30%	42%	19%
12	ZHANG Evan	-	-	-	4%	19%	43%	35%
12	TAN Connor	5%	26%	38%	23%	7%	1%	-
14	LI Yao (Liam)	-	5%	19%	34%	30%	11%	1%
15	WANG Mason	13%	39%	35%	12%	1%	-
16	SEMAPAKDI-CHANG Kaiden	-	3%	17%	39%	33%	8%
17	LI Ayren	1%	12%	34%	35%	15%	3%	-
18	LEWIS Akhil	-	3%	16%	34%	33%	13%	1%
19	XU Ethan	-	5%	25%	40%	24%	5%	-
20	GAO Anthony	-	1%	4%	18%	35%	33%	10%
21	CHEN Kyle P.	-	3%	14%	32%	34%	16%	2%
22	CHENG Ethan	1%	10%	37%	38%	13%	2%	-
23	PROMRAT Pete	4%	23%	37%	26%	9%	1%	-
24	LIU Derek	-	6%	24%	38%	25%	7%	-
26	PITERBARG Maxim	8%	31%	39%	18%	3%	-
27	XU Ethan	3%	17%	34%	31%	13%	2%	-
28	ZHEN Ethan	-	-	< 1%	5%	26%	51%	18%
29	LI Aaron	-	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-
29	CHEN Derek	18%	46%	28%	7%	1%	-	-
31	LIU Jeremiah	15%	36%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
32	MATSAKH Philip	-	3%	18%	37%	31%	10%	1%
33	HU Jason	31%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
34	SOLOPOULOS James	-	2%	13%	34%	37%	12%	-
35	SIMA Congyu	-	3%	16%	36%	33%	11%	1%
35	SHAO Eric	-	5%	25%	40%	24%	5%	-
37	ZHANG Mark	31%	44%	21%	4%	-	-
38	BEBER Eli	8%	31%	39%	19%	3%	-
39	YOU Alex	1%	8%	26%	37%	22%	6%	1%
40	WANG Julang	60%	35%	5%	-	-	-	-
41	KLOTZ Isaiah	12%	38%	36%	12%	2%	-
42	LEWIS Nikhil I.	38%	43%	16%	3%	-	-	-
43	ZHANG Teddy	8%	29%	38%	21%	5%	-
44	HOLCOMB Cedric	9%	37%	43%	11%	1%	-	-
44	XIE Buster	13%	45%	32%	9%	1%	-	-
46	ZHUANG Chuanxuan	42%	40%	15%	3%	-	-	-
47	WU Andrew Y.	21%	43%	27%	7%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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