2023 Winter Thrust RYC/RJCC

Y-10 Men's Foil

Sunday, February 5, 2023 at 3:00 PM

ROCKLAND COMMUNITY COLLEGE - Suffern, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHEN Hanson	-	-	-	1%	8%	35%	57%
2	YU Haochen	-	2%	10%	26%	35%	22%	5%
3	KINGSLEY Griffin	-	3%	17%	40%	35%	6%
3	JAZWINSKI Ryan	-	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	24%
5	XIAN kevin	-	-	2%	10%	30%	40%	18%
6	ULYSSE Jacob	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
7	WANG Ancen	2%	14%	35%	35%	13%	1%
8	CZARNECKI Thomas	-	3%	15%	35%	35%	12%
9	GRIGORIEV Michael	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	22%
10	ZHAI Derrick	1%	6%	22%	37%	27%	7%
11	CHANG Parker	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	13%
12	ZHANG Ethan	-	-	1%	6%	28%	54%	12%
13	LIU Gene	8%	26%	34%	23%	8%	2%	-
14	AMR HOSSNY Adam	1%	7%	26%	40%	23%	3%	-
15	WU Wallace	-	2%	14%	33%	36%	14%
16	ZHAI Alex	-	4%	19%	38%	30%	8%	1%
17	WANG Mendy	1%	9%	29%	37%	20%	4%
18	LU Hansen	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	10%
19	XU Terrance	-	1%	5%	18%	33%	31%	12%
20	PAN Xijun	12%	37%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
21	CHAE Emmett	1%	7%	22%	35%	26%	9%	1%
22	SIU Max	5%	23%	38%	26%	8%	1%
23	QIAN Zekai	-	3%	15%	33%	34%	13%
24	JI Derek	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
25	KIM Daniel	1%	6%	24%	39%	25%	5%
26	HUANG Dalynn	2%	14%	32%	34%	16%	3%
27	TU Nathan	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	1%
28	SHOU Raymond	2%	12%	28%	32%	19%	6%	1%
29	ZHANG Aaron	18%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
30	SHARMA Ari	5%	22%	36%	27%	9%	1%
31	HWANG Jayden	9%	29%	36%	20%	5%	1%
32	HWANG Jacob	6%	26%	39%	23%	5%	-	-
33	GUGALA Frank	5%	19%	32%	28%	13%	3%	-
34	YUNG Zak	8%	29%	36%	20%	6%	1%	-
35	ZHAO David	-	5%	19%	35%	29%	10%	1%
36	LIU jeremy	17%	37%	31%	12%	2%	-
37	CHOI Hunter	10%	33%	36%	17%	4%	-
38	CAO Joshua	-	2%	12%	38%	41%	7%
39	MARTINSON Finn	22%	41%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
40	HONG Thomas	5%	24%	37%	25%	8%	1%	-
41	HAN Jiaren	11%	34%	36%	16%	3%	-
42	LIU Brady	24%	42%	26%	7%	1%	-	-
43	ZHONG Kingsley	30%	43%	22%	5%	-	-
44	CHONG Cooper	14%	40%	32%	11%	2%	-
45	KIM Ian	1%	7%	21%	33%	27%	10%	1%

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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