Freehold Fencing - February Open Epee

Senior Mixed Épée

Sunday, February 26, 2023 at 11:30 AM

Freehold Fencing Academy - Freehold, NJ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5
1	BANKULLA Nihal	-	5%	24%	46%	26%
2	KIM Tei D	-	-	5%	26%	47%	22%
3	SHAFAIE Ali	-	-	2%	15%	44%	38%
3	KIM Juni C	-	-	-	4%	30%	66%
5	SERAFIN Ben	1%	9%	33%	42%	16%
6	ZUKOFSKY Zachary	-	6%	31%	45%	16%	2%
7	SHREM Samuel	-	-	7%	37%	46%	9%
8	AGAON Shawn	-	1%	11%	43%	46%
9	CHEN Eric	-	-	4%	27%	57%	12%
10	CHATZIKALFAS Dimitris	-	3%	21%	47%	29%
11	CHEN Brian	1%	6%	27%	43%	21%	3%
12	LIOU Solomon	-	2%	16%	47%	32%	4%
13	MARTINEZ Joshua	1%	17%	44%	30%	7%	-
14	HU Robert	47%	39%	12%	2%	-
15	MORTON William	1%	10%	38%	39%	12%
16	MALHAM Andrew	30%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
17	WERR Tyler	1%	25%	47%	23%	4%
18	AGAON Ethan	-	4%	22%	45%	28%
19	MATTO Edward	-	5%	27%	48%	20%
20	CHEN Jun Ho	5%	28%	45%	20%	2%
21	ACKLAND Matthew	40%	45%	14%	1%	-
22	OGBORN Teddy	-	-	1%	9%	36%	54%
23	LOPEZ-SIMPSON Victor	6%	32%	45%	15%	1%	-
24	KUGLER Luke	4%	45%	39%	11%	1%	-
25	KIRSCH Adam	13%	39%	35%	11%	1%	-
26	WEN Ethan	10%	36%	38%	14%	2%	-
27	FUSSMAN Yuval	5%	35%	42%	16%	2%
28	HAO Yucong (Casper)	20%	45%	29%	6%	-
29	O'REILLY Robert	49%	41%	10%	1%	-	-
30	POWELL Troy	15%	57%	25%	4%	-
31	BOWIE Charlotta	74%	23%	2%	-	-
32	JURKECH Jacob	16%	48%	31%	5%	-	-
33	LEE Kevin	83%	16%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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