USA Fencing Salt Lake City SJCC Tournament

Cadet Women's Foil

Sunday, December 15, 2019 at 12:00 PM

Salt Lake City, UT - Salt Lake City, UT, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	JING Alexandra	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
2	CASTANEDA Erika L.	-	1%	8%	27%	41%	24%
3	SOOD Ishani S.	1%	10%	29%	35%	20%	4%
3	HOOSHI Erica S.	-	-	2%	11%	30%	38%	19%
5	CHO Gracie L.	-	5%	24%	40%	25%	5%
6	SHEN Sophia H.	-	2%	13%	32%	37%	16%
7	LIAO Lu Jia (Lucy)	-	3%	17%	36%	33%	10%
8	SEAL Grace (Gracie) C.	3%	16%	32%	31%	15%	3%
9	DAVIA Daniella V.	-	1%	10%	32%	41%	16%
10	TAKAMIZAWA Yukari	-	1%	5%	18%	35%	31%	10%
11	GUERRA Sofia E.	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	6%
12	FERNANDES Thea	4%	21%	36%	27%	9%	1%
13	CHO Taylor S.	3%	21%	40%	28%	8%	1%
14	GALAVOTTI Claire Teresa	1%	6%	22%	36%	27%	7%
15	CHEN Kelly	5%	20%	34%	28%	12%	2%
16	KIM Katherine	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
17	LUNG Katerina	-	1%	10%	30%	40%	19%
18	LEE Bethany W.	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
19	CHEN Allison V.	-	6%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
20	KHOO Lauren A.	-	4%	20%	37%	30%	8%
21	KIM Elisabeth (Gracie)	1%	8%	25%	36%	24%	6%
22	UPTON Elizabeth	2%	14%	35%	34%	14%	2%
23	WANG Catherine K.	29%	41%	23%	6%	1%	-
24	PRIETO Sofia M.	1%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%	-
25	LOCKE Savannah	-	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
26	PENTSAKOV Margaret	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
27	LEE Paulina	-	4%	17%	33%	33%	13%
28	JING Emily	-	-	4%	22%	44%	30%
29	MILLER Naomi E.	1%	10%	29%	36%	20%	4%
30	PENG Amber L.	12%	34%	34%	16%	3%	-
31	WU Irene M.	6%	24%	35%	25%	9%	1%
32	ZHAO Sophie L.	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-
33	KOROL Dana	1%	9%	26%	35%	22%	7%	1%
34	DUAN Konnie	3%	17%	32%	31%	14%	3%
35	YHIP Mikaela M.	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
36	FAN Elaine	1%	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
37	HOLLAND Naomi	47%	39%	12%	2%	-	-
38	HO Rachel E.	9%	38%	37%	13%	2%	-
39	SHEN Lydia	-	6%	23%	35%	26%	9%	1%
40	WHITESIDES Ella K.	31%	42%	22%	5%	1%	-	-
41	CHO Cameron S.	< 1%	5%	19%	34%	29%	11%	1%
42	VOHRA Anusha	9%	36%	37%	15%	3%	-
43	HEISER Anna M.	51%	38%	10%	1%	-	-
44	ZAMELIS Madelyn	82%	17%	1%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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