James L. Melcher Grand Prix Epee Open at Fencers C

Senior Men's Épée

Sunday, May 14, 2023 at 1:00 PM

Fencers Club - New York, NY, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SANDERS Ian	-	-	3%	23%	46%	28%
2	KAULL James	-	-	-	1%	21%	78%
3	TSINIS Alex	-	-	-	6%	45%	49%
4	BEZRODNOV Michael	-	-	2%	12%	36%	38%	12%
5	MOORE Shomari	-	-	-	2%	26%	72%
7	LOMBARDO Teddy	-	-	-	5%	32%	63%
8	SHA Michael	2%	18%	42%	31%	5%	-
9	BEZRODNOV Alexander	-	-	5%	23%	44%	27%
10	DUNCAN Corwin	-	-	1%	10%	54%	35%
11	WU Joseph	-	-	4%	27%	57%	11%
12	GOHEL Dayus	-	1%	7%	27%	42%	23%
13	FULLER George	-	-	3%	17%	38%	33%	9%
14	WU Jonathan	-	6%	37%	48%	9%	-
15	CARPENTER Liam	-	1%	7%	28%	43%	21%
16	DANIEL Camron	1%	8%	30%	38%	19%	3%
17	MISHIMA Torata	-	5%	23%	39%	27%	6%
18	GAO Daniel	-	-	5%	29%	54%	12%
19	SMOAK Omari	-	-	5%	27%	46%	22%
20	ZEBROSE Cordell	3%	22%	39%	27%	7%	1%
21	CAI Brian	3%	18%	35%	30%	11%	2%
22	SVERDLOV Seth	2%	17%	42%	33%	5%	-
23	MELCHER Jack	-	2%	14%	40%	35%	10%
24	KNOX James	-	2%	15%	36%	35%	12%
25	FLECKENSTEIN Benjamin	1%	8%	28%	37%	21%	5%	-
26	AYALA Jaime	-	7%	35%	45%	13%	1%
27	LONGSTREET Jeffrey	8%	30%	38%	19%	4%	-
28	TABLEMAN Douglas	-	-	4%	25%	60%	11%
29	KARASICK Michael	5%	23%	40%	27%	6%	-
30	LUKANYUK Lorence	1%	13%	49%	33%	4%	-
31	ARAVIND Athreya	2%	18%	41%	32%	7%	-
32	POLSTER Joshua	4%	33%	43%	17%	2%	-
33	AINA Tiwalayo T	-	1%	5%	18%	34%	31%	11%
34	CHEN Jun Ho	1%	12%	36%	35%	14%	2%	-
35	ZOU Xianyangï¼Maxï¼	16%	45%	29%	8%	1%	-
36	RICH Celester	16%	42%	32%	9%	1%	-
37	NEALE James	8%	39%	41%	11%	1%	-
38	DURKIN Tristan	1%	14%	45%	33%	6%	-
39	HU Robert	23%	57%	19%	2%	-	-
40	KRISHNAN Skanda	65%	31%	4%	-	-	-
41	SCHIAVONE Oreste	27%	47%	22%	4%	-	-
42	CORRIDON Jack (John)	29%	44%	22%	4%	-	-
43	GAO Xiaojiang "George"	33%	50%	15%	2%	-	-	-
44	RIFKIND Neil	17%	52%	27%	4%	-	-
45	DYETTE Marz	29%	45%	22%	4%	-	-
46	CHEN Leonardo	28%	46%	22%	4%	-	-
47	MELCHER Charles B	46%	41%	12%	1%	-	-
48	NILSEN Mark	61%	34%	5%	-	-	-
50	CLARE James	11%	32%	35%	18%	4%	-	-
51	KAIN Brad	59%	36%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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