National Championships & July Challenge (Summer Nationals)

Div III Men's Foil

Thursday, July 6, 2023 at 8:00 AM

Phoenix Convention Center - Phoenix, AZ, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Reset

Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

# Name Number of victories
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 TALASILA Arush - 1% 7% 24% 36% 25% 7%
2 SNELL James E. - - - 3% 17% 42% 38%
3 LYNCH Owen C. - 1% 6% 20% 33% 29% 11%
3 KIM Brian - - 4% 15% 31% 35% 15%
5 LI Samuel - - - 3% 15% 40% 41%
6 LEE Brendan - - 2% 18% 46% 34%
7 SHAO Eric - - 2% 12% 33% 38% 15%
8 PARK Ryan - 3% 15% 34% 32% 13% 2%
9 ROZALSKI Eli - - 4% 15% 32% 34% 14%
10 FENG Michael 3% 16% 32% 31% 15% 3%
11 EDISON Ansel - 2% 9% 25% 35% 23% 6%
12 JOHNSON Chance - 3% 16% 35% 34% 11%
13 SCHIENEMAN Valentine 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 4%
14 MILLER Andrew - - 1% 9% 37% 53%
15 CHEZ Nolan - 3% 18% 35% 30% 12% 2%
16 LEUNG Jin 1% 8% 27% 37% 22% 5%
17 FINNEY Lorenz - - 1% 8% 27% 41% 23%
18 KIM Andy 1% 8% 24% 35% 24% 7% 1%
19 LIU Derek - - 1% 7% 34% 58%
20 WONG Luke S. - - 2% 12% 32% 38% 16%
21 CHIN Ryan - 4% 15% 31% 32% 15% 2%
22 WILKINS Mateo - - 1% 9% 29% 40% 20%
23 AKYAMAC Bora - - 2% 12% 33% 38% 15%
24 AMRANI David - 1% 10% 31% 37% 18% 3%
25 LAM Nicolas 2% 11% 28% 35% 21% 4%
26 LI Aaron - - 1% 6% 25% 43% 26%
27 POPE Alexander 1% 10% 26% 33% 22% 7% 1%
28 WU Lucas - 1% 5% 18% 34% 31% 11%
29 MAGALONG William 9% 27% 34% 22% 7% 1% -
30 XU Andy P. - - 5% 27% 46% 22%
31 WONG Evan - 5% 18% 32% 29% 13% 2%
32 BROWN Darius D. - - 1% 9% 27% 40% 23%
33 HSIAO Nicholas - - 3% 14% 31% 35% 16%
34 SHAPIRO Leon - 1% 8% 24% 35% 25% 6%
35 VACA Ricardo E. - - - 3% 16% 41% 39%
36 KAPOOR Aayan - 1% 8% 24% 37% 25% 4%
37 CHO Xzander - 2% 12% 28% 34% 20% 4%
38 ZHUANG Chuanxuan 1% 10% 27% 34% 21% 6% 1%
39 SPINA Joseph B. - - 2% 13% 33% 37% 15%
40 YEE Johnathan - - 1% 6% 24% 43% 27%
41 FERENCZ Alexander J. - 4% 15% 29% 31% 17% 4%
42 SMITH Grant D. - - 5% 21% 38% 28% 7%
43 MARTIN William - 4% 17% 31% 30% 15% 3%
44 SETLUR Bhrugu - 3% 17% 38% 34% 7%
45 XU Ethan - 1% 10% 29% 36% 20% 4%
46 KIM Jonah - 4% 18% 33% 30% 13% 2%
47 REICHEL Ezra - - 5% 20% 37% 29% 8%
48 HOLCOMB Cedric 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2% -
49 ORNELAS Matteo 2% 13% 29% 32% 18% 5% 1%
50 SINHA Verdhaan - - 4% 19% 36% 31% 9%
51 LEE Jayden - 1% 9% 25% 35% 23% 6%
52 WEINSTEIN Ethan - 1% 7% 23% 37% 26% 6%
53 HOWLAND Jonas 6% 28% 37% 22% 6% 1% -
54 ARANA Massimo - 1% 7% 25% 39% 24% 5%
55 TWEMLOW Sacha - 4% 19% 36% 31% 9%
56 GREENLEAF Paul 5% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1%
57 GE Daniel 3% 16% 31% 30% 15% 4% -
58 LI Allen - 3% 16% 34% 31% 13% 2%
59 LANGEN Carter M. - - 1% 8% 26% 41% 24%
60 WANG Rory - 3% 16% 33% 31% 13% 2%
61 UZGIRIS Kovas - - 3% 13% 32% 36% 15%
62 CLARK Benjamin 2% 12% 30% 34% 18% 4% -
63 CHENG Ethan - - 3% 15% 36% 35% 11%
64 KENNEDY christo 2% 11% 29% 33% 19% 5% 1%
65 WANG Brian - 1% 9% 28% 38% 20% 3%
66 GETSIN Anthony 1% 7% 26% 41% 23% 3%
67 WUN Jonathan 1% 9% 28% 37% 21% 5% -
68 TSINIS Alexander E. - - - 2% 13% 39% 45%
69 CHREKY Jacob D. - - 2% 12% 31% 38% 16%
70 FAN Yuchen - 4% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2%
71 LIU William - 1% 5% 23% 39% 26% 6%
72 CAPRA Ethan - - 1% 6% 25% 43% 26%
73 BOUSSY Luciano - 3% 15% 32% 32% 15% 3%
74 SRINIVASAN Vedant - 2% 11% 31% 37% 17% 2%
75 MONTALBINE Aidan - - 4% 18% 37% 32% 8%
76 YANG Dylan 7% 25% 36% 24% 8% 1% -
77 SURESH Rohan 1% 6% 22% 34% 26% 10% 1%
78 SCHEUERMANN Andrew G. - - 3% 15% 41% 41%
79 WERWA Griffith - 1% 7% 25% 41% 25%
80 LEE Eugene - - 3% 17% 36% 33% 10%
81 GORDON William L. 1% 5% 19% 33% 29% 12% 2%
82 COOK Ryan - 1% 5% 20% 37% 30% 8%
83 ZHENG Harrison 1% 8% 22% 32% 25% 10% 2%
84 ROBINS Brennan - 1% 11% 30% 35% 18% 4%
85 MCCOWN Ronan - 4% 18% 35% 31% 11% 1%
86 GERRISH William 1% 6% 19% 32% 28% 12% 2%
87 SEIB-LEVINSON Conrad - 7% 26% 38% 23% 6% 1%
88 HARRIS Otto - - 4% 17% 35% 32% 11%
89 LACHAPELLE Cole - 2% 11% 27% 35% 21% 4%
90 HOLLIS Sean 1% 9% 27% 35% 22% 6% 1%
91 JORDON Kaleb W. - - - 1% 11% 39% 49%
92 TULYAG Azim - 5% 23% 37% 26% 8% 1%
93 WU Trevor - - 3% 14% 31% 36% 16%
94 KANDAGADLA Rishi - 2% 12% 28% 34% 19% 4%
95 ZAIDI Adil 9% 32% 38% 17% 3% -
96 TONKOVICH Ryan - 4% 18% 36% 33% 9%
97 CUTLER Andrew - 3% 20% 44% 28% 5%
98 THIYAGARAJAA Ari 23% 43% 26% 7% 1% -
99 BARRETT Austin 2% 13% 31% 35% 17% 3%
100 BREWNER Ethan 27% 53% 18% 2% - -
101 LEVY Jacob - - 3% 17% 37% 33% 10%
102 TEH Ryan - 1% 5% 19% 37% 30% 9%
103 RUBIN Max - 3% 14% 30% 33% 16% 3%
104 RIPA Joseph K. 12% 33% 34% 17% 4% - -
105 PEDERSEN Charles 1% 14% 36% 33% 13% 2% -
106 MOE Annan - 3% 15% 33% 32% 14% 2%
107 WEISS Mateo 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 5% 1%
108 GREENEBAUM Oliver 1% 8% 24% 34% 24% 8% 1%
109 MIETTINEN Pyry 28% 44% 22% 5% 1% - -
110 LINDOW Connor 6% 24% 35% 25% 9% 1% -
111 LINDEMANN Marc 1% 7% 24% 37% 24% 7% 1%
112 BOYKO Miles - 4% 15% 32% 33% 14% 2%
113 TUAN Evan - - 4% 19% 37% 30% 9%
114 RNO Kyler 3% 17% 37% 32% 10% 1%
115 ZHAO Brandon 13% 34% 34% 16% 3% -
116 ARCE Andrew W. 4% 18% 33% 30% 13% 2%
117 LU Nathan 8% 28% 37% 22% 5% -
118 CORTRIGHT Joshua C. - 1% 6% 20% 34% 29% 9%
119 VISHAWADIA Jaimin 1% 15% 37% 32% 12% 2% -
120 HUNTER Phillip 3% 17% 37% 30% 11% 2% -
121 BAI Brian 10% 30% 35% 19% 5% 1% -
122 BLEIL Tyler 5% 21% 33% 27% 12% 3% -
123 YU Stephen 1% 7% 22% 33% 25% 10% 1%
124 LIU Xiang - 2% 10% 26% 35% 22% 5%
125 DURHAM Porter - 1% 7% 24% 37% 25% 7%
126 KRAMER Ryan 11% 32% 34% 18% 5% 1% -
127 NEICE William 5% 20% 34% 28% 12% 2%
128 BATRA Dev 2% 12% 29% 33% 19% 5% -
129 BLAM Matthew 1% 7% 24% 35% 24% 8% 1%
130 LAO Kevin 2% 23% 39% 26% 8% 1% -
131 FECHTMEYER Theodore - 4% 17% 34% 31% 12% 2%
132 WOHLERS Trevor 1% 8% 26% 36% 22% 6% 1%
133 HOLCOMB Alexander 31% 43% 21% 5% 1% - -
134 SMITH Cooper 1% 9% 24% 32% 23% 9% 1%
135 GLADNICK Michael J. 2% 13% 30% 33% 17% 4% -
136 LOCKWOOD Jacob 15% 38% 33% 12% 2% - -
137 MASSIMINO Andrew 10% 30% 35% 20% 5% 1%
138 MAVANI Krishna 11% 32% 35% 18% 4% -
139 VANOYEN Dominick - 2% 15% 38% 37% 8%
140 REDONDO Tomas D. 20% 41% 28% 9% 1% -
141 CHEN Brian 6% 28% 39% 22% 5% -
142 SANTIAGO Elias - 1% 10% 30% 39% 18%
143 UPENDER West 6% 34% 39% 17% 3% - -
144 SCHURK Daniel 1% 9% 29% 36% 20% 5% -
145 RITCHIE Phillip - 1% 6% 22% 36% 27% 8%
146 REECE Oliver 4% 18% 33% 29% 13% 3% -
146 DAYAL Vedant 42% 41% 15% 3% - - -
148 ARATA Connor 9% 30% 36% 20% 5% 1% -
149 HASBUN Christopher 4% 19% 34% 28% 12% 2% -
150 MCKEE Calvin 21% 43% 28% 7% 1% - -
151 MODADUGU Aryan 37% 41% 18% 4% - - -
152 FERNANDEZ Rumi 59% 34% 7% 1% - - -
152 THOMSON Hyrum 17% 40% 31% 11% 2% - -
154 GRAY Caidan 7% 26% 38% 23% 6% 1%
155 JURMAN Therin 7% 27% 37% 22% 6% -
156 WITZ Brandon - 4% 17% 34% 32% 12%
157 ENOIU Patrick 15% 36% 33% 14% 3% -
158 STAMMERS Milo 20% 41% 29% 8% 1% -
159 GONZALEZ Oliver 4% 22% 39% 27% 7% -
160 LEY Diego 36% 42% 18% 4% - -
161 ZHANG Jin 49% 42% 8% 1% - -
162 BHAN Amar 7% 35% 38% 17% 3% - -
162 NADOL Sam 4% 22% 35% 26% 10% 2% -
164 ARAVINDAKSHA Ayaan 15% 37% 33% 13% 3% - -
165 CURTIS William K. - 6% 23% 38% 26% 7% 1%
165 HERNANDEZ Marc A. - < 1% 2% 10% 28% 39% 22%
165 HARROCH Faustin 8% 25% 34% 23% 9% 2% -
168 CHOI Simon 2% 10% 25% 32% 23% 8% 1%
169 LI RunLin 18% 41% 30% 10% 2% - -
170 NOTT Kobi 1% 8% 22% 32% 25% 10% 2%
171 BERKE Daniel (Dan) L. 4% 20% 35% 28% 11% 2% -
171 LITTLE Alex 73% 24% 3% - - - -
173 GADIYARAM Madhav 42% 48% 10% 1% - - -
174 LEE Daniel 31% 45% 20% 4% - - -
175 LEE Charles T 2% 17% 35% 30% 12% 2% -
175 CREBBS Calvin 16% 36% 32% 14% 3% - -
177 TOMASI John 1% 9% 24% 33% 24% 8% 1%
177 COSSROW Alex 19% 43% 30% 8% 1% - -
177 JOHNSON Ryder 24% 42% 25% 7% 1% - -
180 COONAN Seamus 18% 41% 29% 10% 2% - -
181 SCOTT Chase 15% 41% 31% 10% 2% - -
182 TRAUB William 25% 41% 25% 7% 1% - -
182 MOHAMED Ahmed 30% 47% 19% 3% - - -
184 BUI James H. 2% 10% 26% 32% 22% 7% 1%
185 TEVEBAUGH Andrew - 10% 44% 35% 9% 1% -
186 BROWN Jason 1% 7% 25% 37% 24% 6% -
187 MCCARVILL Cooper - 2% 10% 27% 35% 22% 5%
188 STORER Alex 1% 12% 46% 33% 8% 1%
189 SOLOPOULOS James 17% 39% 32% 11% 2% - -
190 RODRIGUEZ VINCENT 11% 34% 35% 16% 3% - -
191 SAUCEDO Fernando 18% 41% 31% 9% 1% -
192 HOLCOMB Michael 45% 39% 13% 2% - - -
193 O'CONNOR Ryan (Ryan O'Connor) D. 2% 12% 30% 33% 18% 5% -
193 LEHTINEN Axel 11% 36% 38% 14% 2% - -
195 MOYLAN Matthias < 1% 3% 14% 31% 33% 17% 3%
195 LEE Michael 60% 33% 6% - - - -
197 PETROV Mikhail 31% 40% 22% 6% 1% - -
197 DULAI Angad 21% 40% 28% 10% 2% - -
197 MILES Greyson 9% 42% 35% 12% 2% - -
200 PAPP Mike 8% 27% 35% 22% 7% 1% -
200 MORRIS Luke 17% 37% 31% 12% 2% - -
200 BARANOWSKI Philip 10% 30% 34% 19% 6% 1% -
203 SMITH Charles 60% 33% 6% 1% - - -

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.