AFM Super Regional SYC/RJCC/ROC Div1A/Vet

Y-10 Men's Saber

Sunday, October 8, 2023 at 11:00 AM

Santa Clara Convention Center - Santa Clara, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	GU Andrew	-	-	1%	9%	27%	40%	23%
2	FU BRANDEN	-	-	2%	10%	28%	40%	21%
3	YUEN Caleb	-	-	-	4%	18%	41%	37%
3	KIM Eric	-	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	19%
5	YE Aaron	-	4%	19%	36%	31%	10%
6	WANG David	-	2%	13%	32%	36%	16%
7	HE zhixuan	-	2%	13%	31%	33%	17%	3%
8	LAI Mars	1%	6%	20%	34%	28%	11%	1%
9	LI Jason	-	-	3%	14%	33%	36%	14%
10	DENG Richard	-	4%	17%	35%	33%	12%
11	CHEN Aaron	-	5%	19%	33%	28%	11%	2%
12	LVOVSKIY Roman	2%	14%	33%	32%	15%	3%	-
13	YUAN Alan	-	4%	18%	36%	32%	10%
14	JI Derek	1%	7%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%
15	LI Kevin	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	3%	-
16	QI Zach	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
17	CHEN Brian	-	-	1%	12%	44%	43%
18	KIM Junseong	-	5%	20%	36%	29%	9%	1%
19	LEE Jayden	-	3%	17%	37%	32%	10%	1%
20	TABANCAY Cole	-	-	4%	24%	49%	22%
21	GONG Yubo (Justin)	-	3%	14%	31%	33%	16%	2%
22	CHUNG Evan	-	3%	17%	34%	32%	12%	2%
23	WANG Henrik	1%	11%	31%	35%	18%	3%
24	LOVELL Jackson	1%	8%	30%	42%	17%	2%
25	DUFF Michael	-	-	2%	11%	31%	40%	16%
26	WANG David	4%	19%	35%	29%	12%	2%
27	GUO ATTICUS	2%	19%	36%	30%	11%	2%
28	SU Eric	-	6%	23%	37%	26%	7%
29	SUN Alan	11%	36%	37%	14%	2%	-
30	WANG James	6%	29%	37%	21%	6%	1%	-
31	EKAMBARAM Rithik	2%	12%	28%	32%	20%	6%	1%
32	DING Orlando	2%	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-
33	YANG Aegon	-	3%	13%	29%	34%	18%	3%
34	DESAI Arthav	1%	12%	30%	35%	18%	3%
35	WU August	5%	23%	37%	26%	8%	1%
36	MALLARD Arthur	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
37	KIM Connor	22%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
38	CHEN Yihan	23%	44%	27%	6%	-	-
39	ZHEN Felix	48%	39%	12%	2%	-	-	-
40	LI Sky	15%	35%	31%	15%	4%	-	-
41	LEI Isaac	18%	43%	31%	8%	1%	-
42	HSIEH Maxwell	29%	42%	23%	6%	1%	-
43	SETH Suraj	1%	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-
44	TAN Daniel	61%	32%	6%	1%	-	-
45	LUO Gavin	31%	42%	21%	5%	1%	-	-
46	WU Vincent	12%	35%	34%	15%	3%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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