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Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	CHOI Zachary	-	-	1%	4%	19%	42%	34%
2	JAIN Samyak	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	20%
3	LI Ethan R.	-	1%	5%	23%	43%	28%
3	LI Yunji (Rain)	-	-	2%	11%	30%	39%	18%
5	HIGGINS Calvin	3%	16%	33%	31%	14%	3%	-
6	TONG Samuel	-	-	3%	14%	34%	36%	13%
7	PARK Sangwook	-	-	1%	9%	29%	41%	21%
8	LEVENTAL Mark	-	-	2%	10%	29%	39%	19%
9	CHANG Andrew	-	1%	7%	22%	35%	27%	8%
9	SIM Ian	1%	6%	21%	34%	27%	9%	1%
11	PRAKASH Hari	-	-	4%	16%	34%	33%	13%
12	MANA Arnav	-	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
13	DENISON Declan	2%	14%	33%	34%	15%	2%
14	WU Steven	-	4%	18%	33%	30%	13%	2%
15	WU Eric	-	1%	7%	25%	38%	24%	5%
16	LAI Alexander	-	5%	18%	34%	30%	11%	1%
17	RICHARD silas	-	-	1%	8%	29%	44%	18%
18	RUFANOV Maxim	8%	29%	35%	21%	6%	1%	-
19	CHENG Trevor	-	4%	17%	33%	30%	12%	2%
20	RAHMAN Yousef	-	5%	21%	35%	28%	10%	1%
21	WONG Preston	1%	9%	27%	34%	22%	7%	1%
22	TOYOFUKU Ethan	1%	7%	23%	34%	25%	9%	1%
23	ROBINSON Samuel	-	1%	6%	21%	37%	29%	7%
24	JOHAR Manvik	5%	27%	37%	23%	7%	1%	-
25	YOUNG Quentin	2%	14%	32%	32%	16%	4%	-
26	MAJAM Brandon Audie	1%	9%	26%	34%	22%	7%	1%
27	HSU Joshua	-	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
28	LAURIMAA Emil	-	1%	6%	21%	36%	28%	7%
29	GUO Woody	-	5%	20%	34%	28%	11%	2%
29	YAN Eric	7%	26%	36%	23%	7%	1%	-
31	WEBB Ashton	-	-	3%	15%	33%	35%	13%
32	MA Ryan	8%	28%	36%	21%	6%	1%	-
33	ORMOND Andrew	4%	19%	34%	28%	12%	2%	-
34	KOFMAN David	6%	25%	37%	24%	7%	1%
35	WAGHOLIKAR Prathit	14%	36%	34%	14%	2%	-
36	CLAES Thomas	-	2%	12%	33%	38%	15%
37	ZHAO Colin	11%	34%	36%	15%	3%	-	-
38	CHEW Aedan	10%	30%	34%	19%	5%	1%	-
39	GUIRAUDET Alistair	15%	35%	32%	14%	3%	-	-
40	RAHMAN Zayd	3%	17%	33%	30%	14%	3%	-
41	CHAUDHURI Kabir	21%	39%	28%	10%	2%	-	-
42	NGUYEN Peyton	2%	13%	30%	33%	18%	4%	-
43	MITCHEM Paolo	21%	42%	28%	8%	1%	-	-
44	MATTHEW Neil	2%	10%	26%	33%	21%	6%	1%
45	LIN Jason	13%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-	-
46	COLLINS Kaden	56%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-
47	QIAO James	16%	37%	32%	12%	2%	-
48	LI Sean	57%	34%	8%	1%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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