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MFA Friday Night Epee (Senior Open)

Senior Mixed Épée

Friday, November 24, 2023 at 7:00 PM

Marin Fencing Academy - San Rafael, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	WICKBOLDT Eric	-	1%	7%	25%	42%	26%
2	CHANG Andrew	-	7%	26%	38%	23%	6%	1%
3	COHEN Benjamin A.	-	-	1%	6%	24%	42%	27%
3	SOULAIRE Tom	-	-	3%	16%	39%	33%	9%
5	RICHARD Silas	-	-	2%	10%	32%	42%	14%
6	SARKAR Anish	-	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	29%
7	NICHOLSON Dimitri E.	-	-	-	3%	17%	43%	37%
8	SIRBU Dan	-	-	3%	14%	33%	37%	13%
9	PIVOVAROV Lucas	-	3%	15%	34%	34%	13%	2%
10	MCNAMARA Scott	-	1%	6%	22%	38%	28%	6%
11	VERA Kalista R.	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
12	SARKAR Agniv	-	-	1%	6%	23%	42%	29%
13	DOWNEY Gerard C.	-	-	1%	5%	22%	42%	31%
14	SIM Ian	-	2%	12%	36%	37%	12%	1%
15	PERALTA Christian	5%	26%	40%	23%	5%	-
16	KENNY Oliver R.	-	-	4%	17%	36%	33%	10%
17	HSU Joshua	-	5%	21%	38%	28%	8%	1%
18	LAURIMAA Emil	-	2%	14%	37%	38%	9%	1%
19	BECK Brian C.	-	1%	7%	25%	37%	24%	5%
20	CHANG Abigail	18%	38%	30%	11%	2%	-
21	LEVENTAL Mark	-	2%	11%	31%	36%	17%	3%
22	LOGUE Paul	2%	12%	32%	34%	17%	4%	-
23	MITTMAN Lela Z.	2%	21%	39%	28%	9%	1%	-
24	MORETTI David	3%	17%	34%	30%	13%	2%	-
25	ASTLE Stephen	19%	48%	26%	6%	1%	-	-
26	BLANCO Ariia	1%	9%	26%	36%	23%	5%
27	GUO Woody	-	9%	42%	37%	10%	1%	-
28	LIN Isabel	-	3%	24%	41%	25%	6%	1%
29	CONTI Braeden	13%	36%	35%	14%	3%	-	-
30	ACKERMANN Richard	1%	7%	25%	37%	23%	6%	1%
31	KOWALSKI Max	2%	18%	38%	31%	10%	1%
32	MCGUIRE Maximilien	2%	11%	27%	34%	20%	6%	1%
33	SHAN Ruoheng	6%	27%	40%	21%	5%	1%	-
34	SITTER Keano	1%	11%	33%	39%	15%	2%
35	SMITH Jackson	21%	40%	28%	9%	1%	-	-
36	BUJANOVER Maayan	43%	40%	14%	3%	-	-	-
37	LIN Andrew	6%	45%	36%	11%	1%	-	-
38	JACKSON Susana	12%	36%	34%	14%	3%	-	-
39	BUENAVENTURA Camden	32%	43%	21%	4%	-	-	-
40	SMITH Marissa	48%	41%	9%	1%	-	-	-
41	PERALTA Christian	26%	43%	24%	6%	1%	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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