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Fairfax Challenge ROC/RJCC/RYC & Y8

Div I-A Men's Saber

Friday, January 19, 2024 at 3:00 PM

Fredericksburg Expo & Conference Center - Fredericksburg, VA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	SU Landon	-	-	1%	8%	27%	42%	22%
2	DOARES Andrew	-	-	-	2%	19%	79%
3	TSAO Oliver	2%	12%	29%	33%	19%	5%	< 1%
3	FORMENTI Giulio	-	-	-	4%	18%	43%	35%
5	POSY Daniel	-	-	2%	10%	30%	41%	16%
6	FERRARA Nicholas S.	-	-	-	1%	6%	31%	63%
6	BRIDGEMAN Andrew T.	-	5%	23%	38%	26%	7%	1%
8	DECK Tyson	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%
9	BENSON Jacob	3%	18%	34%	29%	13%	3%	-
10	XU Ivan	2%	14%	31%	32%	16%	3%	-
11	KOGAN Nikita	3%	15%	31%	31%	16%	3%	-
11	FELDMAN Drew	-	1%	7%	23%	35%	26%	8%
13	CHEN Jonathan	-	6%	24%	41%	26%	2%
14	GERSTMANN Max T.	2%	12%	29%	34%	19%	4%	-
15	HOTHA Nikhil	-	2%	11%	28%	34%	20%	5%
16	REHM Liam	2%	14%	31%	33%	16%	3%	-
17	TIAGI George	-	3%	16%	35%	32%	12%	2%
18	ATWOOD Griffin	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
19	PATRICK Timothy M.	-	-	1%	9%	28%	42%	20%
20	KLEBS Robert	-	7%	27%	37%	23%	6%	1%
21	BIALIK Noah	42%	41%	14%	2%	-	-
22	ROBLES Julio C.	2%	14%	35%	36%	13%	1%
23	LIN Felix	6%	29%	40%	21%	4%	-
24	KOGAN Yelisey L.	3%	16%	32%	32%	15%	3%	-
25	SHANKAR Karthik	5%	22%	35%	27%	10%	1%	-
26	TSAO Alister	14%	34%	33%	15%	3%	-	-
27	CHENG Brandon	3%	21%	40%	28%	7%	-
28	SUTHERLAND Jr. Richard L.	6%	24%	36%	24%	8%	1%	-
29	MARGULIS Jared	15%	35%	32%	15%	3%	-	-
30	MONTALVO ashur	4%	34%	40%	18%	4%	-	-
31	ROSE Colin	< 1%	1%	9%	27%	37%	22%	3%
32	MILLS Matthew P.	33%	41%	20%	5%	1%	-	-
33	DHAR asif	6%	24%	35%	25%	8%	1%	-
34	SHU Richard	78%	20%	2%	-	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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