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AFM Youth and Cadet Cup - Event #2

Y-14 Men's Épée

Sunday, January 28, 2024 at 8:00 AM

Academy of Fencing Masters - Sunnyvale - Sunnyvale, CA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	ROBINSON Samuel	-	-	-	1%	10%	38%	51%
2	WU Steven	-	-	-	3%	20%	48%	28%
3	MANA Arnav	-	-	-	2%	14%	41%	42%
3	NIKIFOROV Timofei	-	1%	6%	23%	37%	27%	7%
5	CLAES Thomas	-	-	-	3%	17%	41%	38%
6	GUO Woody	-	-	4%	17%	35%	32%	10%
7	GUPTA Hemansh	10%	34%	37%	16%	3%	< 1%	-
8	KIM Remington	-	1%	7%	23%	36%	26%	7%
9	GACIOCH Noah	-	-	-	2%	15%	47%	36%
10	BAUMAN Colin	2%	14%	34%	34%	14%	2%	-
11	REICHMANN Theo	-	-	2%	10%	29%	40%	19%
12	FAN Jordan	-	5%	18%	33%	30%	12%	1%
13	LOUIE Joseph	-	-	1%	9%	29%	40%	20%
14	TAMAYO-SARVER Daniel	14%	36%	33%	14%	3%	-	-
15	DING Max	-	2%	10%	28%	37%	20%	3%
16	ESTOQUE Marc	16%	36%	32%	13%	3%	-	-
17	HIGGINS Karl	12%	37%	37%	13%	2%	-	-
18	REYES Landon	-	4%	21%	41%	27%	6%	-
19	GUO Luke	11%	32%	34%	18%	5%	1%	-
20	YAO Tristan	-	1%	5%	20%	39%	29%	6%
21	ZHANG Luqi	1%	9%	27%	36%	21%	6%	1%
22	DILEEP Roshan	-	5%	20%	35%	28%	10%	1%
23	BUENAVENTURA Camden	-	1%	11%	35%	39%	13%	1%
24	CHU Theodore	-	-	2%	16%	39%	34%	9%
25	WLOKA Erik	27%	41%	24%	7%	1%	-	-
26	TALATAM Arnav	4%	22%	38%	27%	8%	1%	-
27	WANG Devin	-	3%	15%	35%	34%	12%	1%
28	WANG Adrian	2%	17%	41%	30%	8%	1%	-
29	SU Samuel	-	1%	7%	24%	39%	25%	4%
30	WONG Vansen	3%	16%	34%	32%	13%	2%	-
31	LIU Xuyao	1%	10%	29%	35%	19%	5%	-
32	LIN Daniel	23%	42%	27%	8%	1%	-	-
33	VYAS Arjun	16%	39%	32%	11%	2%	-	-
34	LI Sean	4%	21%	37%	27%	9%	1%	-
35	LI Grayson	7%	25%	35%	24%	8%	1%	-
36	TOPPING Axel	1%	11%	33%	37%	16%	3%	-
37	GLASCOE Henry	19%	46%	28%	6%	1%	-	-
37	VALDEZ Owen	-	5%	21%	35%	27%	10%	1%
39	MALDONADO Brandon	8%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
41	SISODIA Shauryaditya	48%	42%	9%	1%	-	-	-
42	HILL Ethan	1%	17%	42%	31%	8%	1%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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