Remenyik ROC and RJCC

Junior Men's Saber

Sunday, October 13, 2019 at 10:30 AM

Evanston, IL - Evanston, IL, USA

Probability density of pool victories

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	KULDELL Spencer D.	-	-	-	1%	10%	39%	50%
2	SINGER Carson	-	-	1%	14%	47%	38%
3	VASILYEV Nikita K.	-	-	6%	28%	46%	20%
3	MULVANEY Alec S.	-	-	-	3%	19%	45%	34%
5	RESHEIDAT Malik	-	1%	10%	32%	38%	17%	2%
6	AURAY Phileas	-	-	1%	11%	40%	47%
7	ZIELINSKI Nicholaus M.	-	-	2%	15%	43%	41%
8	MILLER Levi H.	-	-	3%	19%	48%	30%
9	PRIEST Leighton K.	-	-	2%	16%	45%	37%
10	YAN Jack P.	-	1%	11%	35%	41%	13%
11	LIU Jonathan M.	-	-	4%	19%	39%	32%	7%
12	KOKKIN Jack S.	-	1%	6%	26%	41%	23%	4%
13	RABINKOV Anthony	-	3%	17%	37%	32%	10%	1%
14	LEFEVRE Colin B.	-	1%	9%	30%	39%	19%	2%
15	HANEY Vincent	-	4%	29%	44%	20%	3%
16	NARANJO David E.	3%	22%	43%	26%	6%	-
17	VILLARREAL Mateo	9%	39%	37%	13%	2%	-
18	SCHARDINE Ryan	-	2%	15%	38%	36%	9%
19	LE Hayden	-	3%	20%	42%	29%	6%
20	WU Oliver	-	-	2%	14%	36%	36%	12%
21	MURZYN III CJ	-	5%	25%	41%	24%	4%
22	GOLDBERG Gabriel A.	19%	47%	28%	6%	-	-
23	ZHOU Aeres Z.	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%	1%
24	PARKER Timothy S.	3%	21%	44%	27%	5%	-
25	GOLD Jackson	1%	12%	37%	35%	13%	2%	-
26	WINEBURNER J.T.	14%	40%	35%	10%	1%	-	-
27	LAI Daniel	1%	10%	34%	41%	13%	1%
28	HAM Kevin P.	-	8%	36%	39%	15%	2%
29	FURMAN Thomas G.	13%	44%	34%	9%	1%	-
29	SCHARDINE James	52%	39%	9%	1%	-	-
31	CHENG Albert	26%	54%	18%	2%	-	-
32	NAGEL Alexander	14%	47%	31%	7%	1%	-	-
33	MCCLUNG Gavin	39%	44%	15%	2%	-	-
34	KELSEY Bennett L.	53%	41%	6%	-	-	-
35	YANG Ethan	14%	40%	35%	10%	1%	-	-
36	FORBES Wyatt	56%	36%	7%	1%	-	-	-
37	RICHER Tyler	59%	34%	6%	-	-	-
38	HU-VAN REETH Alexander	28%	45%	22%	4%	-	-	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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