Star Cup RYC/RJCC

Y-12 Men's Foil

Sunday, August 25, 2024 at 12:00 PM

Danvers Indoor Sports - Danvers, MA, USA

Probability density of pool victories

Birth Year

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Explore the pool victory probability density for each fencer, with their actual victories highlighted in a box. Learn more.

#	Name	Number of victories
#	Name	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
1	QIAN Zekai	-	-	3%	14%	31%	35%	16%
2	QU Richard	-	-	1%	11%	41%	47%
3	CHANG Parker	-	1%	8%	33%	42%	17%
3	SUSANTO William	-	-	7%	37%	45%	10%
5	LI Jayden	-	4%	22%	40%	28%	5%
6	ZHANG Aaron	-	2%	11%	27%	34%	21%	5%
7	CHOI Hunter	-	4%	17%	31%	30%	14%	3%
8	CAO Jeremy	1%	7%	27%	38%	23%	5%
9	HAN Jiaren	-	3%	16%	33%	34%	13%
10	REN Ryan	-	6%	25%	40%	25%	3%
11	SUN Nathan	-	1%	13%	39%	38%	10%
12	ROPER Griffin	-	5%	20%	36%	30%	9%
13	MONDESIR Chace	1%	6%	22%	36%	28%	8%
14	HU Michael	-	5%	23%	38%	27%	7%
15	ZHENG Vincent	-	7%	29%	41%	20%	2%
16	FAN Ze Lin	-	-	1%	9%	37%	54%
17	ZHAO David	-	7%	31%	40%	19%	2%
18	ZHONG Kingsley	1%	7%	23%	36%	27%	7%
19	GOLI Arush	-	5%	20%	35%	30%	9%
20	ZHANG Eric	2%	19%	45%	27%	6%	-
21	CHEN Keegan	7%	27%	36%	22%	7%	1%
22	XIA Vincent	-	4%	16%	32%	31%	14%	2%
23	BU Ethan	-	5%	21%	37%	29%	8%
24	HU Weijie	1%	10%	28%	35%	21%	5%
25	LIN Ziyue	-	2%	15%	41%	35%	7%
26	BRADY David	2%	18%	41%	31%	8%	1%
27	GENG Vincent	25%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
28	LECH Landon	2%	14%	32%	33%	16%	3%
29	CUI Ryan	-	1%	10%	32%	40%	17%
30	LIU Brady	13%	34%	33%	16%	4%	-	-
31	YIN Andrew	9%	30%	36%	20%	5%	1%	-
32	HUANG Alec	67%	29%	4%	-	-	-
33	XU Nicholas	3%	17%	35%	31%	12%	2%
34	SUN Andrew	55%	35%	9%	1%	-	-
35	LU Ethan	8%	44%	37%	10%	1%	-
36	YANG Mark	23%	48%	25%	4%	-	-
37	XU Jaden	19%	45%	28%	7%	1%	-
38	BHOSREKAR Som	45%	44%	10%	1%	-	-
39	DUAN Desmond	24%	40%	26%	8%	1%	-
40	WANG Grant	6%	25%	36%	24%	8%	1%
41	DAVE Neil	46%	43%	10%	1%	-	-
42	HO James	1%	12%	44%	33%	9%	1%
43	WONG Maxwell	1%	16%	36%	31%	13%	3%	-

Explanation

The heatmap in this table provides a visual representation of the victory probability distribution for each fencer in their respective pools:

Each cell in a fencer's row corresponds to a specific number of victories, starting from the left with no victories and increasing to the right, indicating victories in all bouts.
The shading of each cell represents the probability of that particular victory outcome for the fencer. Darker shades indicate higher probabilities, suggesting that the outcome is more likely based on past performances. On the other hand, lighter shades point towards less probable outcomes.
The boxed number in a cell represents the actual number of victories the fencer achieved in the pool, making it easy to compare predicted probabilities with actual outcomes at a glance.
By examining the gradient from lighter to darker cells, you can get an intuitive sense of where a fencer's victories are more or less expected based on their historical performance.

This heatmap visualization offers an immediate understanding of each fencer's expected performance compared to their actual results.

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